international suppliers


international rail links have fallen by the wayside leaving virtually all the countries isolated from one another. Networks in South Central Africa, which encompasses countries including Botswana, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe, have suffered from years of mismanagement and neglect which has established it as the continent’s smallest market. While there are plans to build new lines and potentially boost capacity on the existing Tazara railway for example, the region is likely to remain in the shadow of Sub-Saharan Africa. Indeed SCI projects that freight traffic


SCI expects Chinese manufacturers to build on early successes, such as the supply of locomotives to Tazara, to become major players in the African market.


Liberia, Congo, Cameroon and Gabon (IRJ January p16) as well as in Mozambique (IRJ October 2012 p35). SCI divides Africa into four distinct market regions - Northern Africa, Sub- Saharan Africa, South Central Africa and Southern Africa - each of which has its own specific market challenges and goals.


Southern Africa, which includes


South Africa, Swaziland and Lesotho, is set to remain the largest and most dynamic market in the region as the South African government continues to invest in new and upgraded infrastructure and rolling stock which will also benefit neighbouring countries like Botswana (p26). Northern Africa remains the second largest area. However, developments here have suffered from political instability following the Arab Spring. Prospective projects in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia remain in limbo while plans for


IRJ July 2013 19


will grow by 10.4% per annum in this region from 2012 to 2017, compared with growth of 1.8% per annum between 2007 and 2012, and will account for 16% of the continent’s projected overall annual freight traffic volumes of 195.4 billion tonne-km in 2017. The report says Southern Africa will remain the largest market for freight with a 75% share of 160.9 billion tonne-km transported in 2012. However, despite 2.5% annual growth, this is expected to fall to an overall share of 70% in 2017 as other regions catch up. Northern Africa currently has an 8% overall share of freight volumes and this is expected to remain static up to 2017 despite 3.3% annual growth. SCI cites the region’s already well- developed freight network and increasing competition for paths from passenger traffic as the reason for the levelling off of volumes. The region is though the continent’s


largest source of mainline rail traffic with a 72% share of 65 billion


Rail freight performance


passenger-km recorded continent-wide in 2012. It is expected to retain a 71% overall market share of the 76,200 million passenger-km anticipated in 2017 following 2.8% annual growth, as countries like Morocco and Algeria push ahead with projects, but with Libya continuing to be an overall hindrance.


Western Africa alone could invite investments of up to $US 25bn in infrastructure in the next decade to extract iron-ore.


The study reports that most African societies are growing in terms of population and economic development. The current proportion of urban inhabitants ranges from 40 to 60% which is expected to grow annually by between 1.3% in Southern Africa and 4.2% in South Central Africa. This growth will inevitability place greater strain on urban transit and urban commuter services which in the few places they exist are already largely inadequate given the size of the cities. In particular Sub-Saharan Africa, which is home to 654 million, or 60% of the continent’s residents, and has a population density of 42.6 people/km2, the highest in Africa. It currently suffers from a severe lack of public transport infrastructure. But with governments likely to encourage sharing freight infrastructure with passenger services, 13.6% annual growth is expected in the region for a 6% overall share of the


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