08 | NEWS ANALYSIS WORDS | Adrian Bishop Ticking all the boxes
Surveys make up a good chunk of the news in the overseas property industry. While they are valuable sources of information, it’s always good to take a close look at who was surveyed, our OPP Connect editor reminds us. So, which markets have been topping the polls in recent months? In addition, who’s scoring low...?
I
f you were to take a survey of overseas property editors, I would wager that almost 100% of them
receive several stories each week based on surveys.
Many overseas property companies
turn to polls to produce numerous statistics about market reports, sales fi gures, customer satisfaction ratings and other factors. Other businesses specialise in
producing detailed market reports or regular property indexes that give a useful snapshot or a continuous appraisal of how particular sectors are performing. That said, I appreciate the refreshing
attitude of Canadian ReMax broker, Dave Foreman, who takes a gentle poke at statistics when referring to his personal credentials. While others are claiming to be
among the World’s Top 20 salesmen, or in this or that hall of fame, Dave bills himself as the number one sales representative in the Cambridge, Ontario, region… according to my Mother. And in small print he adds: *only Dave’s Mother surveyed. It reinforces the point that when you
are looking at statistics, it is always useful to know who has commissioned each survey, how many people were polled, how the results differ from previous surveys and similar issues. Recent OPP Connect (www.opp-
connect.com) news stories based on surveys have included fi gures from members of the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate (AFIRE) showing that for the fi rst time since 2001 American locations made up four out of fi ve Top Global Cities for commercial real estate foreign investment.
The group has a small global
membership of less than 200, so the poll numbers were not large, but the prestige and infl uence of the group is impressive – as members manage an estimated $2 trillion in real estate assets. The same survey highlighted
the rise of Turkey as an investment destination, rising from seventh in the Emerging Markets category last year to third this year and from ninth to fourth among Countries Providing
the Best Opportunity for Capital Appreciation.
Commenting on the results to OPP Connect, AFIRE’s chief executive Jim Fetgatter also noted the decline in both China and Europe in general in other categories. “Turkey seems to be attracting
more investor attention in the past year, as can be seen from many other real estate news outlets. I can only presume it is a belief that Turkey is an acceptable means of tapping into the Middle East and North Africa market at reasonable risk while achieving
had the fourth largest rise in property prices over the year to quarter three 2012. Survey publisher Matthew Montagu-Pollock picked up on the fact. “The surprise for me was the continued effervescence of Austria. In quarter two it was up 16% after adjustment from infl ation. “This is quite a boom. I suspect rich
people’s money is driving this. It is an attractive place and it is a place where people are parking money.”
Brazil was one country that did well in both the AFIRE survey, where it
tumbling 30-40% since their height in 2007, the main positive message coming out of surveys seems to be that with prices this cheap, now is the time for buyers to fi nd bargains. However, many industry
commentators fear that the Spanish property market is yet to reach the bottom. After commenting on fi gures from
the Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE) showing a 15.2% fall in the year to quarter three 2012 – the most severe decline since late 2007 – Daniel Talavera, from The Spanish Brick
“The number one sales representative in Cambridge, Ontario... according to my mother”
website, was realistic. “Property prices will not probably recover until 2017 and I am pretty sure that once prices touch rock-bottom there will be a plateau.” Another Spanish industry expert
believes that if developers themselves carried out more surveys about what buyers want, then they would do themselves a huge favour. Barbara Wood, from The Property
Our survey said... | a simple way of gathering market information can be useful
higher yields. “With much of Europe in the midst
of a fi nancial crisis and worries about China’s growth and overbuilding it can be a viable alternative for capital seeking appreciation.” The Global Property Guide for
2012, which is a survey of global house price trends, took another view, suggesting that Dubai was top for property investment, with price increases of 13.46% year-on-year when allowing for infl ation. Another strong performer was European country, Austria, which
was top for the second year running in the Emerging Markets for Real Estate investment category and the Global Property Guide, where it had the second annual highest price rise at 12.46% after infl ation. Price rises illustrating the recovery
of the American real estate market were also highlighted by the Global Property Guide. One country that hasn’t fared well
in recent years in Spain and property price surveys there often make dismal reading. With Spanish property prices
Finders, says in the annual Andalucía Market Report, that developers must conduct their own market research. “If we are about to see new developments coming through, however tentative the recovery may be, this time developers must build what the market wants and in respect of the high-end overseas buyer they want top quality in prime locations, not boxy apartments in high-density developments in inferior locations.” Unfortunately, most Spanish
developers don’t conduct any market research, she says. “They built what they wanted to
build and assumed it would sell. Well, they now know it doesn’t and going forward they must lose their ‘we know best’ attitude and overcome their reluctance to listen to wider and better informed opinion about international buyers and their aspirations.” We’ll have to wait and see.
NEWS
www.opp-connect.com | FEBRUARY 2013
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