The good, the bad... FEATURE
44 | LOOKING AHEAD I
t is human nature to use the passing of the year as a trigger to review progress during the previous year and expectations for the next. While, admittedly, we’re a little way into 2013, the bulk of the changes and events – positive and negative – have yet to hit us.
For the international property
industry, 2012 was a real rollercoaster. Fortunately, there seems to be a consensus that it ended better than it started and many people in the industry seem quietly confi dent of a good 2013. However, the optimism is not evenly spread across all markets. Indeed, in some places, the perception is that the future does not look at all rosy. OPP contacted property professionals from around the world to hear their predictions in their markets for what promises to be an interesting year…
Sustainability Gordon Miller, co-founder of Sustain Worldwide, said:
“As is often the case the threats and opportunities on any given subject, in this instance sustainability, are closely linked. The biggest threat is if governments fail to lead on the issue and big business elects to ignore the benefi ts of positive engagement with the subject.
These include: competitive advantage, resource effi ciency, effective compliance and enhanced reputation. The opportunity therein lies for those
“The threats and opportunities on any given subject are always closely linked”
(e.g. Sustain Worldwide) who infl uence and work with organisations and companies to generate profi table new business opportunity, add value to existing ones, mitigate risk to rising energy, water and waste costs, and demonstrate leadership in sustainability and CSR. To illustrate the threat and opportunity currently, results of recent research, carried out by Lloyds TSB Commercial, found that 42% of the UK’s small businesses surveyed said
that they had little or no understanding of sustainability.”
gordon@sustainworldwide.com US
Bill Clover, President of Panorama International inc, said: “2013 will not be a lot different than 2012. Opportunities abound for the creative and well fi nanced. The world demands talent and cash. The well- fi nanced developer with a unique product designed for the market will always fi nd his place.
The opportunities are: • Unique markets: Select those accessible markets with attractions that can be developed quickly • Excess expensive inventory: Keep inventory tight
Link sales and fi nance: • Differentiated unique product: market for the big “wins” • Suppliers of creative fi nancing from new sources: Think outside the box. Financial Guarantees will again be attractive. • End fi nancing: Consumer fi nancing should be matched to product price, and income projected (if income producing) • Differentiate and design for the repositioning of product: Old product can be repositioned for current markets by a conversion of use – try condotel, Fractional, and a variety of new methodology • Development costs: Development and construction costs are the lowest in years in many markets. • Marketing: Opportunities abound in emerging markets for adept marketing organization and hard working people.
Threats also exist: • Financing: Financiers do not always do what they say they will do. There are many unscrupulous “lenders” and intermediaries. • Non performing developers: Developers who misrepresent, and are not ethical, give a bad reputation to everyone else • Airlift: In emerging markets, this is a work in progress. The balance of air seats and hotel rooms is in fl ux and development. Competition: The competition is now global, and not country specifi c. Wasted time: Your time can be wasted on transactions that will never happen. Choose your associates wisely to conserve your talent and time. • Lack of seed capital: The largest threat of them all. Make sure your initial capital is organized.” clover@
panoramaintl.com
UK
Project fi nance will depend on effective marketing
www.opp-connect.com | FEBRUARY 2013
...and, well, hopefully it won’t get too ugly! 2013 has just begun, and our correspondents from around the world were happy to put their ‘two cents’ in as to what the main threats and opportunities will be this year. This article features a rather eclectic mix – for more expert opinions, check out
www.opp-connect.com
and, in turn, damage the chances of a full housing market recovery. 2. New policies only a hindrance Property market policy decisions in 2012 suggest that the government will be as equally unhelpful in 2013. The FirstBuy scheme, the Estate Agents Act, stamp duty tax and planning legislation reforms, have all hindered the recovery of the housing market. As a priority, the government needs to better understand the business of estate agents and the
“Opportunities abound for the creative and well fi nanced. The world demands talent.”
needs of buyers if property legislation is to actually help the market. 3. Demise of the high street agent High street estate agents will face ever stronger competition from their online counterparts in 2013. By cutting overheads and streamlining processes, online estate agents will account for over 10% of the market within the next two years, putting 1,400 high street agents out of business. For every online estate agent that opens, nine high street agents will close, saving the public approximately £350 million in unnecessary fees. 4. Rise of lawsuits against unscrupulous agents
Adam Day, Director of online estate agent
Hatched.co.uk, said: 1. An uneventful year ahead – a positive for the housing market
Following a turbulent two years marked by stamp duty holidays, the Royal Wedding, Jubilee celebrations and the Olympics, the housing market will settle and steadily improve in 2013. Transactions will rise during the fi rst six months, with house prices potentially climbing by as much as 2% across the year.
However, a word of warning, if there is an unexpected rise in interest rates, house prices will fall quite aggressively
The government’s decision to repeal the Property Misdescriptions Act (PMA) will put estate agents under the scrutiny of Consumer Protection from the Unfair Trading Regulations. Since Consumer Protection is a ‘catch-all’ law that is not specifi cally related to the property market, estate agents will be bound by other legislation for the fi rst time. This will lead to more agents being sued for misrepresentation in 2013. 5. Online in the public eye The housing market is largely controlled by online property portals where buyers search for properties listed by different estate agents. The amendment of The Estate Agents Act in 2013 aims to encourage these property portals to list private sellers and intermediaries on their sites, which they do not want to do. The battle against
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68