Front End I The Braddom Column
New Year predictions from CES T
his is my first bi-monthly column for CIE where I’ll offer my perspective on trends and developments in the
electronics industry, from the point of view of a component marketer.
First, a little about me. Since the last half of 2010, I’ve been Director of Global Strategic Marketing for TE Circuit Protection, a business unit of TE Connectivity. In the past 16 years, I have started new businesses from within large companies, managed P&Ls, been responsible for strategy and business development, and done consulting for several companies including Texas Instruments and Freescale.
Last month saw the annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas where over 3,100 companies came together to exhibit their latest and greatest electronic gadgets. This show, as always, provides an excellent opportunity to see, first hand, what electronics manufacturers are rolling out and also to listen in on the “back room conversation” about OEM’s roadmaps for emerging technologies. This year’s launches included the latest in tablets, smartphones, smart TVs, home networking solutions, solar charging devices and digital health products, but it was clear that 2012 will definitely be the year of the subnotebooks, such as Intel’s Ultrabook computers.
These ultra-thin portable computers are capable of delivering laptop-level computing power in a thinner and lighter package, and although industry analysts argue that they will not replace every laptop on the shelves it won’t stop manufacturers from pushing them. Nearly every PC manufacturer had one on display and Intel said that as many as 70 varieties will be available this year.
Nevertheless, tech pundits at CNET and elsewhere suggest that two new technologies being released this year may slow Ultrabook sales in the short term. First, Intel's next-generation processor for laptops, called Ivy Bridge, is due out soon. It will be faster and support the versatile, ultra-high-speed Thunderbolt technology, which is supposed to boost data transfer speeds up to 100Gps. Also scheduled for launch later this year, Windows 8 is expected to deliver better touch-based functionality.
Along with the myriad of Ultrabook and tablet releases we’re seeing a proliferation
Eric Braddom is Director of Global Strategic Marketing, TE Circuit Protection
of peripherals used to supplement functionality trade-offs for size. For example, a peripheral keyboard or mouse added onto a tablet takes on the functionality that was once built into the main device. As portable products become more powerful, the peripherals that are connected to them, via USB, Thunderbolt and other ports, must also support much faster communication speeds.
Also at CES, for the first time in years, we saw new screen technologies in 4K and OLED TVs. 4K TVs were shown by all the major manufacturers, but the stunning picture quality, lower power consumption and thinner, lighter designs of OLED panels by Samsung and LG got the most buzz. Manufacturers have clearly determined that they can’t charge more for smart TVs and will need higher resolution panels to increase the average selling price. From a
circuit protection standpoint, this is an interesting trend. Higher resolution translates to faster HDMI speeds. 4K maxes out the current HDMI 1.4a spec at 10.2 Gbps, but HDMI is not fast enough to support 4K and 3D at the same time. There will need to be an HDMI spec revision to accommodate faster data rates or more differential pairs to support 4K and 3D simultaneously. Either way, we are already gearing up to provide devices for this burgeoning technology. For electronics components
manufactures, the message from CES is that we will need to develop new devices that can enhance battery life and reliability in slimmer, sleeker products that are also adopting the higher-speed interfaces. We especially see opportunities in targeting products using Thunderbolt I/O technology and other high-speed interfaces.
Job losses: Nokia is to shed 4,000 factory jobs in Finland, Hungary and Mexico as it shifts the assembly of its smartphones to Asia. The redundancies take the total number of planned job cuts at the group to more than 30,000 since Stephen Elop took over as chief executive in September 2010. The move, which is intended to speed up production in the fast-moving smartphone market, follows the company’s announcement that it made a loss of $1.2bn in the last quarter of 2011 while net sales of phones fell by over 20 per cent.
Acquisition: Plessey has acquired CamGaN Limited, a University of Cambridge spin-out formed to commercialise novel technologies for the growth of gallium nitride (GaN) high-brightness LEDs on large- area silicon substrates. The acquisition will enable Plessey to exploit
synergies with
its 6-inch processing facility in Plymouth to produce HB LEDs based on CamGaN's proprietary 6-inch GaN-on-silicon technology. The company believes that the acquisition will position it among the first commercial players to successfully manufacture HB LEDs on 6-inch silicon substrates.
Surge in profits: South Korea's Samsung Electronics has announced a 17% rise in profits in the last three months of 2011, as smartphone sales boosted earnings. Net profit for the quarter was 4 trillion won
($3.6bn; £2.3bn), up from 3.42tn won in the same period in 2010. However, for the whole of 2011 net income was down 15% compared with 2010. Samsung said that its Galaxy line of mobile devices drove up revenue for the year by almost 40% compared with the previous year while shipments of it smartphones rose by about 30% in the fourth quarter on an annual basis. Looking ahead to this year, Samsung is forecasting increased demand for entry-level smartphones and tablet PCs, as well as consistent demand for feature phones.
Web economy: The value of the web economy in the leading economies that make up the G20 has been forecast to double by 2016, according to the Boston Consulting Group. Revenue is expected to surge from £1.5trn at present to over £2.7trn driven by the growing use of smartphones. The rapid fall in the cost of smartphones - with cheap versions now costing about $100 - means that by 2016 about 80% of all internet users will access the web using a mobile phone. The study, commissioned by web giant Google, assumes that in four years 3bn people will be using the internet, or around 50% of the world's total population. The research also suggested that the UK remains one of the most advanced e-commerce economies.
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6 February 2012
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