1. Tourism energy management: 25 per cent of the tourism sector green investment (on average US$ 61 billion per year) is allocated in 2011-2050 to both energy demand reduction through efficiency improvements and increase of renewable energy supply.
Abatement of emissions from energy use: Emissions from tourism activities are reduced in the green scenario through efficiency improvements in tourism electricity and fuel consumption and behavioural changes towards longer stay and fewer trips, shorter travel distance and transport modal shifts (from aviation and private cars to cleaner transport, e.g. coach and electric railway). This investment adds up to US$ 18 billion per year on average over the next forty years, or 29 per cent of the tourism energy green investment in the green investment case (G2). The same rates of efficiency gain and modal shifts as in associated GER sectors are assumed, while the assumption in increase of stay (by 0.5 per cent per year) and reduction of trips (to retain total guest nights) is based on the scenarios presented by UNWTO and UNEP (2008). The investment is estimated by using CO2
abatement costs included in International Energy
Agency (IEA) (2009). More specifically, for tourism transportation:
■ The length of stay is assumed to increase by 0.5 per cent per year (on average 3.7 days in 2050) instead of a 0.5 per cent decrease per year (2.5 days in 2050) in BAU, in line with the scenarios of UNWTO and UNEP (2008). To be consistent with the projected total guest nights in other scenarios, tourist arrivals in the green investment scenario are reduced.
Thereby these
travelling behavioural changes result in fewer but longer trips, but would not affect total number of guest nights. In addition, IEA’s assumption of reduced travel is a good fit with the green tourism goal (short travel and longer stays).
■ With respect to transport modal shift and energy efficiency in the green scenario, to ensure coherence across the sectors, the same assumptions as in the GER transportation sector are used for tourism. In accordance with IEA’s reports, it is assumed that by 2050 in the green scenario, 25 per cent of car travel and air travel is replaced by bus or rail. The ratio of transport energy efficiency in the green investment scenario (by 60 per cent) is based on the amount of green investment and unit abatement costs from IEA.
■ Renewable energy production: Additional investments of 71 per cent of the tourism energy green investment (or US$ 43 billion on average per year)
between 2010 and 2050 are allocated to the introduction and expansion of renewable power generation and biofuel production. The cost assumptions are collected from IEA (2009).
2. Tourism water management: 0.1 per cent of the tourism-sector green investment (on average US$ 0.24 billion per year) is allocated in 2011-2050 to both water demand reduction through efficiency improvements and increase of water supply24
: Water efficiency improvement: The amount of
investment in water-efficiency improvement, aimed at reducing tourism water demand, is assumed to be US$ 0.16 billion per year on average (or 65 per cent of investment in tourism water management) over the 40- year period. The unit cost is assumed to be US$ 0.28/m3
.
Water supply: The remaining (35 per cent) of tourism- sector water investment (US$ 0.86 billion per year on average between 2010 and 2050) aims to increase water supply from desalination and conventional water sources:
■ Desalination: 30 per cent of water-supply investment (US$ 0.026 billion per year on average), over the 40-year period will be invested in water desalination. The cost to supply water desalination is set at US$ 1.1/m3
.
■ Conventional water supply management: 70 per cent of the total water-supply investment (US$ 0.06 billion per year on average) is allocated to conventional water- supply management measures, including treatment of wastewater, reservoir storage, and surface and underground water supply. The unit cost to increase conventional water supply is set at US$ 0.11/m3
.
3. Waste management: 13 per cent of tourism-sector green investment (on average US$ 32 billion per year) is allocated in 2011- 2050 to upstream (collection) and downstream (reuse) waste treatment:
■ Waste reuse: 8 per cent of the tourism waste investment is invested in waste recycling and recovery, totalling on average US$ 2.4 billion per year over the next 40 years under the green investment scenario. The unit costs of recycling and compost are assumed to be US$ 138 per tonne and US$ 44.85 per tonne respectively.
24. The low level of investment allocated to tourism water sector is due to the relatively small amount of water consumption in tourism compared to the total of all sectors, as the same unit costs and improvement percentage are used for all water users.