On top of that, Iran has developed
its own array of ballistic missiles, including the Shahab and the Sajil. These weapons have ranges of over 1,000 miles, giving Iran the ability to strike directly at targets in Israel. One serious concern: These mis-
siles could be launched at Israel’s nuclear reac- tor in Dimona. The IDF recently has beefed up air defenses in the area, out of this concern. Iran’s ISNA news
agency reported in November that a senior Iranian military adviser warned, “If Israel fi res [a] rocket at one of our nuclear facilities or vital centers, it should know that any point of Israel, such as its nuclear facilities, would be a target for our rockets, and we have that capability.” Of course, Israel is not without
tegic waterways, the Strait of Hormuz. American and coalition forces in
Iraq and Afghanistan also would be vulnerable to retaliation. American plans to withdraw its military forces from both countries could be under- mined, or even derailed, if Iran elects to fl ex its muscle against troops stationed in its own neighborhood. The Nov. 29 takeover
ISRAEL INTEL Meir Dagan is the former head of Israel’s covert Mossad agency.
of the British Embassy in Tehran was viewed by Israel as an Iranian dem- onstration of the type of steps the rogue nation could take in response to any attempt to destroy its nuclear facilities. IDF estimates vary regarding the number of expected casualties.
defenses of its own. New missile defense systems like the “Iron Dome,” a mobile anti-missile air defense sys- tem that can intercept short-range armaments, including Katyusha rock- ets, have been deployed throughout the country. Already two advanced Arrow sys-
tems, which can intercept ballistic missiles, have been deployed. The IDF has begun construction of a third Arrow battery as an additional shield. Israeli intelligence believes Iran’s
retaliation would not be limited to Israeli targets. Even if Israeli jets did the bombing, Iranian leaders would accuse the United States of providing logistical assistance. Other potential targets of Iran’s
wrath include water desalination plants on the southern shores of the Persian Gulf, oil processing plants in Saudi Arabia, and oil tankers cruising through one of the world’s most stra-
Defense Minister Ehud Barak recently said that if the public listened to mili- tary orders to stay in bomb shelters, fewer than 500 people would be killed in such a war. Meir Dagan, the former head of Israel’s spy agency, Mossad, has predicted that the number would be far greater. And judging by the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, a determined Iran could fi ght until it feels it has exacted a heavy price from Israel. Thus Israel and the United States face a harrowing dilemma: A large-
All Eyes on Syria S
Iran’s Chokehold T
he Strait of Hormuz, which narrows in places to just 24 miles
across, is a key chokepoint through which nearly a third of the world’s oil passes on its way to refineries around the globe. If only a single oil tanker were hit by a cruise missile, images of black columns of smoke spiraling into the sky would fill the world’s television screens. The firms that insure the tankers
would forbid them to transit the strait while hostilities continued. Iran has missile boats and several
Kilo-class submarines it could use to disrupt shipping. A prolonged disruption, oil experts calculate, could drive the price of a barrel of oil to $200. The price such an oil shock would exact on the fragile U.S. economy could be high indeed.
scale war that could spread to other parts of the Middle East, or a nuclear weapon-ready Iran posing a threat not only to the nation of Israel, but also to other Middle East countries as well. When that infamous phone rings
in the White House at 3 a.m., there will be no easy choices.
Yaakov Katz is the military correspondent and defense analyst for The Jerusalem Post. He is the author of Israel vs. Iran — The Shadow War.
yria is believed to be the wild card in the aftermath of any attack. While some Israeli of icials believe Syria
would not attack Israel on Iran’s behalf, others have argued that President Bashar al-Assad might start a war in a bid to divert attention away from the murder of an estimated 4,000 civilians since the uprising in that country began last year. Israel renewed distribution of gas masks in 2010, anticipating the possibility of a chemical or biological attack by Syria or Iran. The IDF’s Home Front Command, which is responsible for civil defense, received an increased budget to prepare bomb shelters, and to train the public in how to respond to an emergency.
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