growth in
the Gulf INTEGRATED PLANNING
The challenges facing governments throughout the Arabian Gulf are considerable. To reduce dependence on oil revenues, they must diversify their economies while catering for the needs of growing, often largely expat, populations. What’s more, economies such as the UAE must tackle internal development disparities and provide an attractive environment for the inward investment on which the economy depends.
The Arab Spring may have compounded the challenge. It’s likely that much-needed foreign investment will prove more difficult to secure. However, the World Bank’s private-sector lending arm, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), has stepped in, setting aside some $1.5bn for 2011 to improve education, support SMEs and generate employment through infrastructure projects. By 2014, the investment could be as high as $2.5bn per year. Professional Emiratis are aware of the issues
and are driving the agenda to address precisely these challenges, with the aim of achieving sustainable prosperity in a post-oil world. Atkins has worked on a strategic blueprint to assist the UAE in this and, importantly, it is one of the first examples of coupling a plan for social infrastructure, such as schools and hospitals, with a long-term development strategy. Known as the UAE Holistic Plan, the blueprint covers the UAE’s five northern emirates, with a combined population of more than 1.3 million, and looks ahead to 2030. It encompasses all the facilities provided by the UAE’s Ministry of Public Works, such as schools, hospitals, health centres, sports facilities and community centres. “These five emirates are mostly rural and lie within desert or mountainous areas,” says Martin
Tedder, senior planner with Atkins. “This plan considers the need for new and upgraded facilities to serve the population over the next 20 years.” “Instead of thinking about where your facilities might go over that period, we had to first develop a spatial development plan and think about what was the most sustainable pattern for development. Rather than having the community facilities as a bolt-on at the end, you’ve got the two reinforcing each other,” says Tedder. The work included initial economic forecasts and analysis of existing development plans, through to projections about population migration and location, coupled with an analysis of the different services that would be required. “It also includes, potentially, new link roads to
improve accessibility, renewable energy schemes and other public realm projects. The main aim is to derive a list of projects that will help support population growth in the northern emirates,” adds Tedder.
Predicting the population This level of long-term planning requires an understanding of the future scale, distribution and characteristics of the population – a task that was far from straightforward. “The citizen population – people born in the
UAE with full citizen status – can be estimated using cohort projection, so we consider factors such as fertility and mortality by age groups,” explains Tedder. “But citizens only account for about 15 per cent of the population – the other 85 per cent are expatriates.”
The expat population is of vital importance
to the UAE. Migrant workers – both skilled and unskilled – are the linchpin of the economy. They need facilities, services and a good standard of living if they are going to stay.
“THE POPULATION [OF BAHRAIN] IS GOING TO INCREASE FROM 1.1 MILLION TO PERHAPS 2.1 MILLION OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS, SO IT’S A LARGE AMOUNT OF GROWTH TO ACCOMMODATE IN QUITE A SMALL SPACE”
“The future expat population cannot be
predicted using standard indices of fertility and mortality,” says Tedder. “However, it does respond to the performance of the economy and the attractiveness of the UAE relative to other countries. Forecasting what the expat population will be and how it might be distributed in 20 years is a critical part of the development of UAE-wide economic forecasts. “Atkins interviewed more than 2,500 citizens to find out what makes the country tick. It’s not just looking at empirical data: it’s collecting primary information on what people think about public services – how they could be delivered better, how far they have to travel, what they think about quality. That was a critical element in our approach.”
A focus on sustainability The plan also provides a blueprint for sustainable development. Cheap energy and rising incomes have led to a reliance on road transport in the UAE and, with daytime temperatures peaking at more than 45°C, it’s easy to see why so many citizens make use of energy-guzzling air conditioning in their homes and offices. “The climate presents challenges because you need energy for air conditioning. But it presents significant opportunities as well,” notes Tedder. “There’s potential to harness solar energy and also energy from the wind coming off the Indian Ocean and over the Hajar mountains.” Sustainable development is also about avoiding duplication of resources – such as hospitals and schools – and providing a framework for communication between neighbouring emirates. “Perhaps the greatest contribution this project can have on sustainable development is the introduction of a more collaborative approach to planning and service delivery,” observes Tedder. “Service delivery can be quite fragmented and it’s constrained by emirate boundaries. But a more co-ordinated approach could ensure that services are built closer to the areas of greatest need. This means they’re better used and closer to centres of population, with less energy required for transport.” One hundred miles up the coast, the Kingdom of Bahrain faces dwindling oil reserves, prompting the government to diversify into financial services,
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northern emirates have been included in Atkins’ UAE Holistic Plan. It couples a plan for social infrastructure, such as
schools and hospitals, with a long-term development strategy.
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