climate
change PLANNING FOR GLOBAL WARMING
From extreme weather systems to coastal floods, research over the past decade paints a disturbing picture of what rising global temperatures could mean for the world’s cities. How can planners today anticipate a changing climate’s influence and prepare for tomorrow?
While the precise effects of climate change are still impossible to predict, it is becoming clear that strategic planning could hold the key to reducing its social and economic impact. Intelligent approaches to planning can’t come soon enough, as many of the world’s cities lie on the coast or in fluvial zones, making them especially vulnerable to any changes in water level. As highlighted in the UN’s “State of the
World’s Cities Report 2008/09”, 3,351 of the world’s cities are situated in low-lying coastal zones – 64 per cent of which are in the highly populated developing world. Meanwhile, 35 of the 40 largest cities in the developed world (including Japan) are situated on the coast or along a riverbank. The report predicts that most coastal cities will feel the effects of climate change. The issue is one not only of geography, but also of demographics. In its most recent “World Disasters Report”, the International Federation of Red Cross highlights what it calls the “urban risk divide” – the disparity between well-planned wealthy cities and poorer ones. “Physical infrastructure, land planning and the size of informal settlements are the biggest factors determining the impact of disasters on cities,” says N M S I Arambepola, director of urban disaster risk management with the Asian Disaster
Preparedness Centre in Bangkok. “With so many people migrating to the cities, many of the most vulnerable urban populations settle in the more disaster-prone areas where no one else wants to live.”
Planning for the unknown If the experts are right, climate change will mean coming to terms with a world where extraordinary weather events such as tropical cyclones may become far more frequent. Speaking at an Environment Agency
conference in November 2010, chairman Lord Chris Smith said: “We mustn’t underestimate the enormity of the environmental challenges that lie ahead of us in the next 20 years. The science of climate change remains compelling and during this period we will begin to see its impact: more extreme weather patterns; a more unpredictable climate; changing agricultural conditions; and a sea-level rise. There will be more floods and more droughts.” Finding ways to cope is vital for rich and poor nations alike. In January 2011 the Brisbane River burst its banks, causing the worst flooding in the city since 1974. The bill for cleaning up after the devastation has been estimated at $440 million, largely to construct new homes, repair transport infrastructure and restore power to homes and businesses.
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