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per cent rise in the UK’s peak river flows over the next two decades could have significant implications.


The idea of taking long-term


environmental changes into account in planning policy has been slow to take root. But that’s starting to change, and one place where this is happening is in Bahrain. The kingdom – an archipelago of more than 30 islands in the Gulf – has a population of more than 790,000. Accommodating climate change is a pillar of its National Planning and Development Strategies, which are being formulated by Atkins. Roger Savage, senior planning consultant


with Atkins, says that parts of Bahrain are quite low-lying, so a temperature rise of two degrees in global mean temperatures would have significant consequences. The question is: how do you encourage development and protect communities? One way is to ensure that new developments meet rigorous resilience standards. Durrat al Bahrain, a massive new island reclamation project at the southern tip of Bahrain, is an example. Reclamation levels


for the 20km2 development, which is being


led by Atkins, were set with sea-level changes in mind. “Bahrain has expanded quite dramatically since the mid-1960s, when the first reclamation projects took place,” says Savage. “The practice of reclaiming land, which can provide an opportunity to build in flood protection, is one way of dealing with the problem of rising sea levels.” The Gulf benefits from the fact that it is


relatively sheltered and the violent storms associated with exposed coastlines are rare. But global sea-level rises would have an impact despite this. “There has been flooding of some of the


more vulnerable coastal villages over the past two years,” says Savage. “Part of the strategic plan covers the marine environment. This integrates coastal zone management and looks at the evolution of the coastline and how that may need to be adapted to respond to those challenges.”


Masterplanning of this sort is about setting long-term objectives and achieving those objectives through incremental changes. These include mechanisms to steer new developments to areas where they are likely to be sustainable and encouraging energy-efficient urban design to protect citizens from rising temperatures. “Traditional Islamic cities were built with


shaded streets and narrow alleys. Buildings were constructed in such a way that they cooled naturally,” notes Savage. “It’s possible to use some of these principles in modern developments. They can be enshrined into development and design guidelines at the neighbourhood scale.” Locking-in sustainable growth means big-


picture thinking and attention to detail. And the effects, he emphasises, are cumulative. “It’s about channelling projects as they come forward. Some of those will be quite large and will clearly make large steps towards delivering the strategy. Some of the things


It is estimated that it will take billions of dollars and several years to repair the damage of the


Brisbane 2011 floods.


will be much more incremental. The key is that it needs the plan to set the direction.”


On the rise Climate change is a major concern for coastal communities the world over. Some of those communities have long and painful experience of adapting to environmental change that has – all too often – come out of the blue. Communities along the Lincolnshire coast


in east England are a case in point. Records stretching back 800 years paint a picture of the awesome power of the sea. It’s a roll call of flood defences breached, towns washed away and land lost beneath the waves. The Lincolnshire coast is susceptible to flooding for two reasons. The first is the risk from storm surges: mass movements of seawater funnelled down through the North Sea. The second is isostatic readjustment: since the end of the last ice age, southern Britain has been slowly sinking, so relative sea levels continue to rise. The Lincolnshire coastal study, conducted


by Atkins and completed earlier this year, is the first comprehensive undertaking of its kind. The study considers the complex web of relationships between a huge range of environmental, social and economic factors. These include rising sea levels, coastal flooding, economic regeneration, housing, agriculture, tourism, transport and health. “Planning for a period of 20 years is nothing when you compare it to natural phenomena such as rising sea levels,” stresses Savage. “We need to look at a much longer period of time: 50 or 100 years.” The study considers how the roles of coastal towns could change over the coming decades – roles that could be shaped significantly by strategic planning and spending decisions. It raises some tough questions. “Do you freeze development as it is now and put in protection measures to stop flooding? Do you start gradually moving people out of some of the smaller


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