INDUSTRY I CPV
If a start-up increases its capacity, it will then be competing with the incumbents that are unlikely to need any in-house investment to cater for the predicted hike in orders over the next few years.
“We have at least four cell manufacturers that are readily available to increase product at the right quality and the right cost,” says Lerchenmüller.
He explains that these suppliers have a “huge buffer zone” in their manufacturing capacity, which is needed to accommodate the volatility of orders for cells for space applications. It is imperative to hit the deadlines for these aerospace contracts, as the knock-on effects of a delay would be disastrous.
“Just converting this overcapacity [into production of cells for CPV] will serve the business for the next two to three years.”
Crunch time
valuable resource. “CPV can be a big asset there when you partner with somebody who has the storage equation,” says Hartsoch.
Opportunities for cell makers
The big contracts being signed by CPV makers will be greatly welcomed by developers and manufacturers of triple-junction solar cells. Both Hartsoch and Lerchenmüller offer some insights into what these chipmakers must do if they are to be successful, such as excelling in several areas of device performance. “The cells we get today are reliable and proven in space applications. Cell reliability is not a problem today, and for new entrants in the cell market, reliability is your ticket to entry,” says Hartsoch. Decisions by SolFocus on the selection of cell suppliers are heavily influenced by the cost of the device and its performance. “You can have really low cost and lower efficiency, and that’s OK, or you can have really high efficiency and high cost, and that’s OK. The real issue is how the cost of the cells and the related performance affects the overall cost of energy from the system,” says Hartsoch.
Lerchenmüller hold similar views. However, he believes that efficiency is the key metric, arguing that one of the benefits of higher efficiency at the system level is a reduction in the number of cells and modules needed to deliver a given output power. He also thinks that it doesn’t necessarily follow that a cell must be more expensive, if it is more efficient.
Any company that is trying to win orders with CPV system manufacturers may have to begin with a qualification period, which can take several months. SolFocus and Soitec both have IEC-certified product. So if they are to adopt different cells, they have to build modules with these cells and then send them out to test labs to pass IEC certification. “It can take six months,” says Lerchenmüller.
CPV system makers will only go with a start-up if it can scale its manufacturing capacity. “This industry is going to grow rapidly,” says Hartsoch, “so you want to partner with the guys that have a technology that can go to volume manufacturing and increase quickly, and investors that are willing to take the companies there.” She points out that the capital costs for CPV system makers to build a 100 MW factory can be as low as just 12 cents per Watt, and depend on the CPV system design. “ For the cell guys, to increase their capacity, it’s a lot of capital investment.”
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www.solar-pv-management.com I Issue VIII 2011
The ease at which global triple-junction cell capacity can increase over the next few years will restrict the success of start- ups. “Of those 15-20 start-ups, there will be two or three winners,” says Hartsoch, who believes that those that succeed will be those that can win investment, scale up capacity and partner with CPV firms to secure initial business.
“It’s a very exciting part of the business – with no other solar technology can you be so flexible at adopting an advancement as you can with CPV systems.”
Lerchenmüller believes that cell producers can gain the edge over their rivals by adopting the mindset of companies operating in the silicon industry. “You have to provide a better product next year at a lower cost – full stop.” If companies of any size can take on this attitude and execute of this front, they will stand a far better chance of qualifying product with Soitec.
Meanwhile, SolFocus’ bugbear with cell suppliers has been a lack of commercial processes such as outgoing test, but these chipmakers are making progress in this direction. “Historically, because they were cells used in space, 100 percent incoming inspection was standard,” explains Hartsoch.
One way that some cell start-ups are trying to stand out from the crowd is by developing triple-junction devices with novel architectures that offer spectral tuning.
Lerchenmüller believes that this is an important feature, but does not see a big advantage at site-specific tuning at present, because there is a high degree of similarity in the spectral profile of sunlight at many of the sites where CPV will be deployed over the next few years: “A typical site for large installations is California, in areas that are elevated, but not too highly elevate.” He adds that most sites with a high value of direct normal irradiance have a similar spectrum, and says that a choice of cells is only needed once the market has grown substantially to several GWs or more.
“We believe that the CPV market, by 2015, can be as high as 1.8 GW.” If he’s right, the ramp in CPV deployments during the next few years is going to be breathtakingly fast.
© 2011 Angel Business Communications. Permission required.
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