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CONCLUSIONS Online Advertising C hanges Votes • Four percent of the electorate who could recall the message delivered via online ads – i.e. those for whom the message was “burned in” – changed their vote over the course of the cam- paign in favor of Prendergast. NOTE: in the 2010 cycle, 31 races in the House of Representatives were decided by 4% of the vote or less. • Measured another way, in a post-elec- tion survey, those voters who could recall the message – those for whom the message was burned in – voted for Kathy Castor at a rate 8 percentage points less than those who could not recall the message.
better than another, then resources can instantly be put behind the effective ad, increasing the efficiency of the buy. The “learning” nature of the digital ad realm could be another reason for the hockey stick shaped result. In either case, achieving a 550% increase in message
recall by a target audience in the last 8 days of a campaign is a huge benefit to a campaign.
Comparing Digital Advertising to More Conventional Media A value of online advertising not necessarily measured in polls that none the less became apparent in this study is the ability to deploy messaging online long after the win- dow closes on sending mail or putting commercials on TV. Typically, a TV commercial would need to be on air eight to ten days to get enough GRPs behind it to burn in a message. Producing a TV commercial can take as little as 24 hours or several days, depending on the produc- tion values of the commercial. Getting the commercial in rotation at the television stations takes time. As such, the last day to begin airing a TV commercial is probably ten days to two weeks prior to Election Day. Some me- dia consultants might argue that you could compress the timeline to air a commercial and have it still be effective, or that a more powerful commercial needs fewer GRPs, but one thousand GRPs is the gold standard for airing a TV commercial. Similarly, mail takes time to produce and deliver. Most
mail vendors will require a finalized mail design be in their office ten days prior to Election Day. Digital advertising can be designed and online in hours, and the results of this survey prove that a large media buy in the last days of a campaign can move numbers. In this study, 5.3 million impressions in the last two days of the campaign moved 3% of voters, and 11% of targeted voters. As noted earlier, 31 races in 2010 were decided by fewer than four percentage points.
40 Campaigns & Elections | Canadian Edition
Online Advertising is Highly Targetable • Within the targeted audience, Republican men, sur- vey respondents being able to recall the message went from 4% to 22% over the course of the eight-day on- line ad campaign.
• The percent of Republican men who were able to identify Kathy Castor with the message went from 53% in the initial poll to 68% in the final poll.
• In the post-election poll, Republican men were the demographic sub-group that most associated Kathy Castor with the message. Sixty-eight percent of Re- publican men associated the negative men with Castor.
Online Advertising Has a Significant Impact at the Last Minute • In the above example of Republican men recalling the message, it took 9.3 million targeted impressions and six days of advertising to get a seven percentage point increase from 4% to 11%; it took an additional 5.3 million impressions over two days to get an additional 11 percentage points recalling the message, to 22%.
• Among all voters, the rate of increase was shallower but still substantial. The increase of all voters being able to recall the message phrase rose 3 percentage points with the first six days and 9.3 million targeted impressions and another 3 percentage points with the next 5.3 mil- lion impressions and two days of advertising.
George Gorton ran all of Senator and Governor Pete Wilson’s campaigns in California, and was Arnold Schwarzenegger’s first consultant. Showtime’s movie “Spinning Boris” chronicles Gorton’s efforts in re-electing Russian President Boris Yeltsin in 1996. Steven Moore has conducted surveys in seven countries: Russia, Romania, Indonesia, Iraq, East Timor and the United States. He is recognized as an innovator in using online advertising in the Congressional arena.
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