KENYA Special Report
While it had been Raila Odinga’s race to win, events within his party are what have changed the matrix
Djibouti and Tanzania to win over the leaders of those countries to push for a deferral of the Kenya case at the ICC. Musyoka’s mission was ridiculed
back home as a diplomatic engagement bound to fail. The leading regional weekly newspaper, The EastAfrican screamed: “How Kenya became a diplomatic joke” as its banner headline. When asked what he thought of Musyoka’s shuttle diplomacy, Odinga said that the trips to African capitals had not been sanctioned by the cabinet. “I can tell you that we never talked
about the issue of shuttle diplomacy,” Odinga revealed. “What we agreed on was referral and not deferral of the cases involving the post-election violence suspects. How does the African Union help Kenya yet we are already a signatory of the Rome Statute? If we want to move away from the Rome Statute – which I don’t support – we would rather deal directly with the ICC.” Odinga’s view hit a soft spot among
“President Kibaki got a
unanimous endorsement from the AU Summit for deferral at the International Criminal Court of the cases of the post-election violence suspects. This was sweet music to him.”
2008 post-election violence, he opened a can of worms and a diplomatic nightmare. The naming of “The Hague Six”
(Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto, Francis Muthaura, Joshua Arap Sang, Henry Kosgei and Major General (Rtd) Hussein Ali) is now seen as the ICC meddling in Kenya’s 2012 elections. As Odinga was still smarting from
the wounds of the Côte d’Ivoire debacle, President Kibaki dispatched Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and two ministers (Chirau Ali Mwakwere and Njeru Githae) on a whirlwind shuttle diplomacy mission to South Africa, Malawi, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Botswana, Lesotho, Libya, Zimbabwe,
60 | April 2011 New African
local civil society organisations, and was loudly echoed by Christian Wenaweser, president of the ICC’s Assembly of State Parties, who visited Kenya to lobby against the deferral. “I must say I am seriously concerned
about the diplomatic efforts being made by the Kenyan government to influence AU members in order to support its bid to have cases at the Court deferred. I believe they should deal directly with the Court on this,” said Wenaweser, who hails from Liechtenstein. He had made a stopover in Addis Ababa where he asked the AU not to support Kenya’s deferral bid. Before going to the Summit, President
Kibaki had attended the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) meeting where he lobbied again for Kenya’s deferral. He told the assembled dignitaries: “On 27 August last year we promulgated a new constitution, paving the way for a wide range of judicial and police reforms in order to create Kenya’s local judicial mechanism with sufficient capacity and with the ability to investigate and try all perpetrators of the post-election violence. The process of creating these new institutions is quite advanced today and there will be no going back.” He continued: “It is for this reason that I
seek your support for a UN Security Council deferral of the Kenyan cases as provided for under Article 16 of the Rome Statute, so as to give Kenyans 12 months within which to set up the local judicial process and
embark on completion of investigations and trials. Kenya is a fully functioning state and the provisions of deferral under the principle of complementarity are not appropriate for the country.” The Ethiopian premier, Meles Zenawi,
gave the clearest sign that Kenya was going to have its way at the heads of state meeting, when he asserted: “We cannot allow the only country that has enjoyed stability in the region to be destabilised on the grounds of a technicality. All that Kenyans are asking for is a 12-month period to be allowed to put in place a mechanism that will bring about justice and avoid a repeat of the post-election violence.” No wonder Kibaki got a unanimous
endorsement for ICC deferral from the AU Summit and the decision was submitted to the UN Security Council. This was sweet music to Kibaki. In
the next round of global lobbying, the diplomatic offensive will now be among the five main UN Security Council members where Russia has already expressed its desire to support Kenya’s request. Nairobi is seeking to lobby China’s support and is said to be less enthusiastic about the US, France and the UK. The AU Commission chairman,
Jean Ping, said of the Argentine ICC Prosecutor Ocampo: “[He] has behaved as if already those he named are criminals by announcing them openly before the international media in disdain. By saying he will use Kenya as an example, Ocampo is being vindictive. We Africans and the African Union are not against the ICC. That should be clear. We are against Ocampo who is rendering justice with double standards.” Now, with Odinga on one side and
Kibaki and his supporters on the other side, the race to succeed the president has been blown wide open. While it had been Odinga’s race to win, events within his party are what have changed the matrix. The disquiet in Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has harmed his chances and emboldened his opponents. The Côte d’Ivoire saga and the ICC deferral are a clear indicator to Odinga that the race ahead will not be easy, and the incumbent, with his quiet demeanour, is also an adversary. Key contenders for the presidency,
apart from Odinga, include Musyoka, Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Internal Security Minister George Saitoti, and the former ministers William Ruto and Martha Karua. Other names being floated include the youthful politicians Peter Kenneth and Eugene Wamalwa. Ever silent, and considered by the local
media as “laid back”, President Kibaki seems to be playing his hand well and might have a lot to say about his succession.
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