WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
Figure 6: Fundamental Shift in Transport Technology Required
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
100 200 300 400 500 600 700
0 2035
Source: WEO 2010, IEA Advanced vehicles, which represent 70% of new car sales by 2035, make a big contribution
to emissions abatement, underpinned by a dramatic decarbonisation of the power sector.
mb/d today to 4.4 mb/d in 2035. The US, Brazil and the EU are expected to remain the world’s largest producers and consumers of biofuels. Advanced biofuels, including those from ligno-cellulosic feedstocks, are assumed to enter the market by around 2020. The cost of producing biofuels today is often higher than the current cost of imported oil, so strong government incentives are usually needed to make them competitive with oil-based fuels. Globally, government support to biofuels is projected to rise to about US$45 billion per year between 2010 and 2020, and US$65 billion per
Cutting emissions sufficiently to meet the 2°C goal will require a far-reaching transformation of the global energy system
year between 2021 and 2035. Government support typically raises costs to the economy as a whole. But the benefits can be significant too, including reduced imports of oil and reduced CO2 emissions – if sustainable biomass is used and the fossil energy used in processing the biomass is not excessive.
Climate Change & the Energy Sector The outcome of the landmark COP15 in Copenhagen was a step forward, but still fell a very long way short of what is required to set the world on the path to a sustainable energy system. And the current talks in Cancun, Mexico (currently taking place) will not provide any further or legally binding agreements. The Copenhagen Accord established a non-binding objective of limiting the increase in average global temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. It also set a goal of mobilising funds for climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries and requires the industrialised
90 December 2010
PHEV sales in 450 Scenario
EV sales
in 450 Scenario CO2
intensity
in power generation in Current Policies Scenario (right axis)
CO2 intensity
in power generation in 450 Scenario (right axis)
countries to set emissions targets for 2020. Were those commitments to
be implemented in a cautious manner, as assumed in the New Policies Scenario, rising demand for fossil fuels would continue to drive up energy-related CO2 emissions, making it all but impossible to achieve the 2°C goal. This is because the reductions in emissions needed after 2020 would become prohibitively expensive or even impossible with today’s technologies. In that scenario, global emissions continue to rise through the projection period, though the rate of growth falls
progressively. Emissions jump to over 35 Gigatonnes in 2035 — 21% up on the 2008 level of 29 Gt. Non-OECD countries account for all of the increase; OECD emissions peak before 2015 and then begin to fall. These trends are in line with stabilising the concentration of GHG at over 650 parts per million of CO2-equivalent, resulting in a likely temperature rise of more than 3.5°C in the long-term. “The 2°C goal can only be achieved with
vigorous implementation of current commitments in the period to 2020 and much stronger action thereafter,” insist the IEA. According to climate experts, in order to have a reasonable chance of achieving the goal, the concentration of GHGs would need to be stabilised at a level no higher than 450 ppm CO2-equivalent. Accordingly, the 450 Scenario describes how the energy sector could
evolve in order to achieve this objective. It assumes implementation of the measures to realise the more ambitious end of target ranges announced under the Accord as well as more rapid implementation of the removal of fossil-fuel subsidies agreed by the G-20 than assumed in the New Policies Scenario. Emissions reach a peak of 32 Gt just before 2020 and then slide to 22 Gt by 2035 in the 450 Scenario. Cutting emissions sufficiently to meet the 2°C
goal will require a far-reaching transformation of the global energy system. In the 450 Scenario, oil demand peaks just before 2020 at 88 mb/d, only 4 mb/d above current levels, and declines to 81 mb/d in 2035. Coal demand peaks before 2020, returning to 2003 levels by 2035. Among the fossil fuels, demand for natural gas is least affected, though it too reaches a peak before the end of the 2020s. Renewables and nuclear double their current combined share to 38% in 2035. Global energy security is enhanced by the greater diversity of the energy mix.
Million
Grammes per kWh
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