WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
Figure 4: Renewables Enter the Mainstream
120 150 180 210
30 60 90
0 2007 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Government support remains the key driver – rising from US$57 bn in 2009 to US$205 bn in 2035 – but higher fossil-fuel prices and declining investment costs also spur growth.
Source: WEO 2010, IEA
renewables in absolute terms lies in the power sector. In the New Policies Scenario, renewables- based generation triples between 2008 and 2035 and the share of renewables in global electricity generation increases from 19% in 2008 to almost one-third (catching up with coal). The increase comes primarily from wind and hydropower, though hydropower remains dominant over the
Globally, government support to biofuels is projected to rise to about US$45 bn per year between 2010 and 2020 ...
Outlook period. Electricity produced from solar photovoltaics increases very rapidly, though its share of global generation reaches only around 2% in 2035. The share of modern renewables in heat production in industry and buildings increases from 10% to 16%. The use of biofuels grows more
2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
A drop in coal-fired generation in the OECD s offset by big increases elsewhere, especially China, where 600 GWof new capacity exceeds the current coal capacity of the US, EU & Japan.
Source: WEO 2010, IEA 88 December 2010 Biofuels
Renewables-based electricity
than four-fold over the Outlook period, meeting 8% of road transport fuel demand by the end (up from 3% today). Renewables are generally more
capital intensive than fossil fuels, so the investment needed to provide the extra renewables capacity is very large. Investment in renewables to produce electricity is estimated at US$5.7 trillion (in year-2009 dollars) over the period 2010-2035. Investment needs are greatest in China, which has now emerged as a leader in wind power and photovoltaic production, as well as a major supplier of the equipment. The Middle East and North Africa region holds enormous potential for large-
scale development of solar power, but there are many market, technical and political challenges that need to be overcome. Although renewables are expected to become
Figure 5: Coal Remains the Backbone of Electricity Generation
India China
increasingly competitive as fossil fuel prices rise and renewable technologies mature, the total value of government support is set to rise as their contribution to the global energy mix increases. The IEA estimate that government support worldwide in 2009 amounted to US$37 billion for electricity from renewables and US$20 billion for biofuels. In the New Policies Scenario, total support grows to US$205 billion (in year-2009 dollars), or 0.17% of global GDP, by 2035. Over the Outlook period, 63% of the support goes to renewables- based electricity. Support per unit of generation on average worldwide drops over time, from US$55 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2009 to US$23/MWh by 2035, as wholesale electricity prices increase and their production costs fall due to technological learning. This does not take account of the additional costs of integrating them into the network, which can be significant in some cases, for example, because of the variability of some types of renewables, such as wind and solar energy. The use of biofuels – transport
Other non-OECD OECD
fuels derived from biomass feedstock – is expected to continue to increase rapidly over the projection period, thanks to rising oil prices and government support. In the New Policies Scenario, global biofuels use increases from about 1
TWh
Billion dollars (2009)
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