WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
the Copenhagen Accord’s overall goal of holding the global temperature increase to below 2°C. Rising demand for fossil fuels would continue to drive up energy related CO2 emissions through to 2035, making it all but impossible to achieve the 2°C goal, as the required reductions in emissions after 2020 would be too steep. The New Policies Scenario trends are in line with stabilising the concentration of GHGs at over 650 parts per million of CO2-equivalent, resulting in a likely temperature rise of more than 3.5°C in the long- term. In order to have a reasonable chance of achieving
the goal, the concentration of GHGs would probably need to be stabilised at a level no higher than 450 ppm CO2-equivalent. The 450 Scenario describes how the energy sector could evolve were this objective to be achieved. It assumes implementation of measures to realise the more ambitious end of target ranges announced under the Copenhagen Accord and more rapid implementation of the removal of fossil-fuel subsidies agreed by the G-20 than assumed in the New Policies Scenario. This action brings about a much faster transformation of the global energy system and a correspondingly faster slowdown in global CO2 emissions. For example, oil demand peaks just before 2020
WEO 2010: FactSheet What does the global energy outlook to 2035 look like?
THE PACE OF the global economic recovery holds the key to energy prospects for the next several years, but it will be governments’ responses to the twin challenges of climate change and energy security that will shape the future of energy in the longer-term, emphasize the IEA. In the New Policies Scenario – the central scenario
in this year’s WEO – world primary energy demand increases by 36% between 2008 and 2035, or 1.2% per year on average. This compares with 2% per year over the previous 27-year period. The scenario assumes cautious implementation of the policy commitments and plans announced by countries around the world, including the national pledges to reduce GHG emissions and plans to phase out fossil- fuel subsidies. Projected demand growth is slower than in the Current Policies Scenario, in which no change in policies beyond those already adopted is assumed; demand grows by 1.4% per year over 2008-2035. In the 450 Scenario, which sets out an energy
pathway to limit the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere to around 450 parts per million of CO2 equivalent consistent with an increase in global
at 88 mb/d, only 4 mb/d above current levels, and declines to 81 mb/d in 2035. Coal demand peaks before 2020. Demand for gas also reaches a peak before the end of the 2020s. Renewables and nuclear double their current combined share to 38% in 2035. “A lack of ambition in the Copenhagen Accord
pledges has increased our estimated cost of reaching the 2°C goal by US$1 trillion and undoubtedly made it less likely that the goal will actually be achieved. Doing so would require a phenomenal policy push by governments around the world. The technology exists today to enable such a change, but the required rate of technological transformation would be unprecedented. “The message here is clear. We must act now to
ensure that climate commitments are interpreted in the strongest way possible and that much stronger commitments are adopted and taken up after 2020, if not before. Otherwise, the 2°C goal could be out of reach for good,” Tanaka said. “Getting the prices right, by eliminating fossil-
fuel subsidies, is the single most effective measure to cut energy demand in countries where they persist, while bringing other immediate economic benefits.” •
temperature of 2°C, demand still increases, but by only 0.7% per year. In the New Policies Scenario, (taking into account
government pledges) non-OECD countries account for a whopping 93% of the projected increase in global energy demand, reflecting mainly faster rates of growth of economic activity. China, where demand has surged over the past decade, contributes 36% to the projected growth in global energy use, its demand rising by 75% between 2008 and 2035. Aggregate energy demand in OECD countries rises very slowly. Nonetheless, by 2035, the US remains the world’s second largest energy consumer behind China.
In the New Policies Scenario ... world
primary energy demand increases by 36% between 2008 and 2035
Global demand for each fuel source increases,
with fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – accounting for over 50% of the increase in total primary energy demand. Rising fossil-fuel prices for end uses, resulting from upward price pressures in international markets and increasingly onerous carbon penalties in many countries, together with
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