WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
Figure 1: Incremental Primary Energy Demand Fuel & Region in New Policy Scenario, 2008 – 2035
Coal
Other renewables Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil
–500 –250 0 250 500 750 1 000 1 250 Mtoe
Demand for all types of energy increases in non-OECD countries while demand for coal & oil declines in the OECD.
Source: WEO 2010, IEA
policies to encourage energy savings and switching to low carbon energy sources, help to restrain demand growth for all three fuels. Oil remains the dominant fuel in the primary
energy mix to 2035. Nonetheless, its share of the primary fuel mix diminishes as higher oil prices and government measures to promote fuel efficiency lead to further switching away from oil in all sectors. Demand for coal rises through to around 2020 and starts to decline towards the end of the Outlook period. The share of nuclear power increases from 6% in 2008 to 8% in 2035. The use of modern renewable energy — including hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern biomass and marine energy — triples between 2008 and 2035, its share in total energy demand increasing from 7% to 14%.
Figure 2: Oil Production Becomes Less Crude World Oil Production in the New Policies Scenario
100
20 40 60 80
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
OECD China
Other non-OECD Inter-regional (bunkers)
is set to resume its long-term upward trajectory from 2010. Demand increases by 44% between 2008 and 2035 – an average rate of increase of 1.4% per year. Growth in demand for gas far surpasses that for the other fossil fuels due to its more favourable environmental and practical attributes, and constraints on how quickly low-carbon energy technologies can be deployed. China’s gas demand grows fastest, accounting for more than one-fifth of the increase in global demand to 2035. The Middle East leads the expansion of gas production, its output doubling by 2035. Over a third of the global increase in gas output comes from unconventional sources — shale gas, coalbed methane and tight
gas — in the US and, increasingly, from other regions. A glut in global gas-supply capacity, which could peak in 2011, will keep the pressure on gas exporters to move away from oil price indexation, notably in Europe.
Oil remains the dominant fuel in the primary energy mix to 2035 ...
Fossil-Fuel Subsidies One central tenet of this year’s WEO is the
gradual elimination of fossil-fuel subsidies. So, how big are the potential gains? Subsidies remain commonplace in many
Unconventional oil Natural gas liquids
Crude oil: fields yet to be found
Crude oil: fields yet to be developed
Crude oil: currently producing fields
Source: WEO 2010, IEA Global Oil production reaches 96 mb/d in 2035 on the back of rising output of
natural gas liquids & unconventional oil, as crude oil production plateaus. Natural gas is set to play a central role in meeting
the world’s energy needs for at least the next two- and-a-half decades. Global natural gas demand, which fell in 2009 with the economic downturn,
86 December 2010
countries, resulting in an economically inefficient allocation of resources and market distortions, while often failing to meet their stated objectives, according to the IEA subsidies that artificially lower energy prices encourage wasteful consumption, exacerbate energy-price volatility by blurring market signals, incentivise fuel adulteration and smuggling, and undermine the competitiveness of renewables and other low-emission energy technologies. For importing countries, subsidies often impose a significant fiscal burden on state budgets, while for producers they quicken the depletion of resources and can thereby reduce export earnings over the long-term. Fossil-fuel consumption subsidies, comprising subsidies to fossil fuels used in
final consumption and to fossil-fuel inputs to power generation, worldwide amounted to US$312 billion in 2009. The annual level fluctuates widely with changes in international energy prices, domestic
mb/d
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