to these events. The estimated cost of damage from these extreme climate events in the last ten years exceeds US$40 billion (figure 1.10).

Regional climate change patterns projected for the end of the century indicate that the Central American and Caribbean sub-regions will experience an increase in the intensity of hurricanes, along with a reduction in

precipitation and a corresponding series of droughts (figure 1.11). In Mexico, higher temperatures, a greater number of heat waves, fewer days of frost and an increased number of droughts are expected. In Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Chile and Argentina, glaciers will continue to shrink, while countries with coasts on the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans will see increased precipitation.

Summary of climate change patterns projected for 2100 in Latin America and the Caribbean

Confidence level High

Medium Low

Projected changes:

Glacier melting Increase in temperature

Increase in precipitation Decrease in precipitation Increase in precipitation extremes Longer dry spells periods Shorter dry spells periods

More heatwaves Fewer frost days

Higher hurricane intensity

Note: the confidence levels are based on the statistically significant levels of coincidence determined for the sign of change by a certain number of models (at least 80% for high confidence, 50-80% for medium confidence and less than 50% for low confidence).

Source: ECLAC, on the basis of information from the National Institute of Spatial Research (INPE) of Brazil.

Figure 1.11 14