BUSINESS & FINANCE
there is no clear funding mechanism for local authorities to bring fibre to rural areas that are not likely to attract commer- cial operators.” The majority of BT’s investment will be
in fibre-to-the-cabinet (FTTC) technol- ogy, with only 25% to be spent on fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) says the FTTH Council. In particular, rural areas could be neglected, although another analyst company, Point Topic, points to altnets including Rutland Telecom and Fibrestream which are aiming to plug the gap. Indeed, Point Topic predicts fibre serv-
ices will rise sharply in the UK. The number of DSL lines in the UK grew from 550,000 to 12.3 million between 2003 and 2007 says Point Topic, and the company expects next-generation FTTx broadband to mirror that growth, with 12 million lines by the end of 2016. “While it took DSL three years to get
from almost nothing to half a million, we expect that FTTx will cover similar ground in only two years,” says Tim Johnson, chief analyst at Point Topic. The difference reflects a combination of factors including greater commitment by BT and a much more competitive market, says Johnson .
The global picture When it comes to the global picture, new reports show analysts once again releas- ing bullish figures on the growth of fibre deployments. French research company Idate says global fibre-to-the-home/ building (FTTH/B) subscribers reached nearly 41 million worldwide by the end of last year—a greater than 16% increase in six months—and projects that will reach 52 million this year. “Over the next five years this momen-
tum is likely to translate into a significant increase in the number of homes passed: by the end of 2014, there will be close to 306 million homes passed for FTTH/B around the globe, of which more than half will be located in Asia and 18% in Western Europe,” says Idate senior consultant, Valérie Chaillou in the report. In 2014, 18 countries will have deployed optical fibre networks to more than 50% of homes, compared to just eight at the end of 2009. Meanwhile Point Topic in its quarterly
July/August 2010
www.totaltele.com
Top 10 FTTx operators (by subscribers), end 2009 Rank Operator
Country
1 2
3
4 5 6 7 8 9
NTT Japan China Telecom (1) China China Netcom (2) China KT Verizon
SK Broadband ER Telecom AT&T
Chunghwa 10 LG Powercom
South Korea US
South Korea Russia US
Taiwan South Korea
Main technology & architecture FTTH/B GEPON
FTTH + FTTx +LAN EPON LAN/DSL FTTH+FTTx +LAN EPON LAN,DSL
FTTB EPON/GEPON FTTH BPON/GPON FTTB/LAN GEPON FTTB
FTTN VDSL2 FTTB GEPON
FTTH/B EPON/GEPON
(1) of which 560,000 FTTH subscribers and 10.6 million FTTx/LAN subscribers. (2) of which 90,000 FTTH subscribers and 5.6 million FTTx/LAN subscribers.
FTTx
subscribers 12,779,000 11,160,000
5,590,000
4,630,000 3,430,000 3,032,099 2,140,000 2,100,000 1,639,824 1,566,206
Source: IDATE
‘There is no clear funding method to bring fi bre to rural areas not likely to attract operators’
European economies with highest FTTH/Building + LAN penetration
Lithuania Sweden Norway Slovenia Estonia Denmark Slovakia Finland
Netherlands Italy
Lativa France
Czech Republic Portugal Bulgaria
0% 5% n FTTH subscribers n FTTB + LAN subscribers
10%
15% Source: FTTH Council / IDATE
broadband statistics report says FTTx accounted for 12.88% of total broadband lines globally, or 62.5 million, compared to 64.33% for DSL (312 million lines) and 20.20% for cable modems in the first quarter to the end of March. Asia Pacific and South and East Asia have 82.76% of the worldwide FTTx market, or 51.69 million lines, says Point Topic. China is the largest FTTx market with 23.2 million subscribers or 37% of the global total; Japan is the second largest country with 17.69 million FTTx subscribers or 28.3% of the total market; South Korea is third
with 8.32 million subscribers (13.3%). The Australian government is deter-
mined not to be left behind by its Asian neighbours. The National Broadband Network Co. has already started construc- tion of the network and in June announced early trials in New South Wales, with serv- ices to include smart metering, virtual learning and high-definition Internet tele- vision. In the same month, Alcatel Lucent was named as a key supplier for network equipment, agreeing an initial A$70 million contract. NBN Co. said it plans to spend up to A$1.5 billion on network equipment
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