BUSINESSNEWS Growth despite austerity
According to the latest PV market analysis from Solarbuzz nine countries are forecast to exceed 250 MW in 2010, up from six countries in 2009.
The high growth in these regions can be attributed to strong supportive government policy and consumer demand. These conclusions were based on the firm’s reports released this week.
Germany continues to lead the global market in 2010. Despite this, impending policy changes, including to two successive incentive tariff reductions in the next seven months, will place growing emphasis on seeking out growth opportunities in other country markets over the next year. German policy makers are wrestling with how to bring the market under some level of effective control.
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Despite the economic downturn, PV markets in Europe, such as Italy, the Czech Republic, Belgium and France, are forecast to grow strongly this year. Key to this, Italy, Czech Republic and France are forecast to generate some 3 Gigawatt (GW) of demand in 2010.
Meanwhile, Spain is still reverberating from catastrophic PV policy adjustments over the last two years that continue to deteriorate.
Italy, Czech Republic, United States, and potentially even Japan are all capable of becoming just the third country to ever install 1 GW of PV in a single year. Recent key policy enhancements in Japan and the US have set the ground work for significant growth in these already substantial markets.
PV project order books in China and India indicate that those two regions are well positioned to make a material contribution to global market growth over the next two years. Nearly 100 planned installations in China add up to an unrisked order book of 18.6 GW, while the Indian pipeline contributes a further 4.8 GW.
Solar companies are operating more vertical integration models in the strategic markets, either through equity interest or via partnering. The ability to access sources of project financing remains key to success in most of the major markets.
On the supply side, Japanese module manufacturers are increasingly focused on their domestic market, able to access the utility net feed-in tariff and new residential incentives. Distribution channels in that country are becoming more diversified, with new entrants like Yamada Denki and Toshiba starting to make their presence felt.
UK solar promises growth The market for solar technology in the UK
is set to increase more than five-fold this year, it has been predicted. A report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) has revealed that production of photovoltaic (PV) systems will gain ground on other forms of renewable energy over the coming years, with solar capacity expected to exceed 1,000 MW by 2015.
This would mean the UK market had grown by more than 30 times from its present level in the next half-decade. However, the company noted the UK is unlikely to match solar installation levels presently seen in Germany until 2020.
Daniel Guttmann, renewables director at PwC, said: “The significant expansion will change today’s cottage industry into a more professionally organised sector.”
DARPA awards contract
Ascent Solar Technologies announced that the DARPA has selected their team for an award under the Low-Cost Lightweight Portable Photovoltaics (PoP) solicitation. The ASTI-led program, entitled “Flexible High- performance Tandem-junction PV Array”, consists of three gated phases, the first of which is 18 months and has an approximate contract value of $3.8M. The entire program is anticipated to continue over the next 54 months. The goal of PoP is to demonstrate low-cost, lightweight photovoltaics (PV) that can stand up to battle conditions and environmental extremes while delivering a power conversion efficiency of 20% or greater by the end of the program.
He added that the industry will need to adapt quickly over the coming months and years if it is to make the best use of this influx of interest.
Leon Pierhal, CEO of Opel Solar recently stated his belief that the future looks bright for PV solutions around the world, with the US market in particular seeing significant investment at present following a lull during the economic downturn.
“We are excited that DARPA selected our team for the PoP project,” stated Farhad Moghadam, President and CEO of Ascent Solar. “In order to meet the aggressive goals of performance, capacity, and military toughness, our team has put together a definitive plan that combines our flexible CIGS production experience and existing military product, substrates from QinetiQ, multijunction thin film technology from ASTI and IEC, films for optical and electrical enhancement from Brewer and Cambrios, and packaging technologies being developed by ITN and ASTI. The program dovetails with our existing pathway for flexible thin film monolithically integrated CIGS-based PV modules at 20% module efficiency.”
www.solar-pv-management.com Issue IV 2010
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