but rarely sufficient. Clinicians want to understand the simul- study designs and data for model building will be presented,
taneous probabilities of these events. including cohort, nested case-control, case-control data com-
This course will define the problem within a clinical bined with registry data, and kin-cohort data. Issues relating to
and FDA perspective. Trial design, sample size, and non- the evaluation of risk prediction models and the strengths and
parametric methodological approaches will be presented. limitations of risk prediction models for various applications
Parametric methods that stress the shape of the underlying will be discussed. Standard criteria for model assessment will
hazard function will be emphasized. Finally, the interactive be presented, as well as loss function-based criteria applied to
roles of industry, clinicians, FDA, and the statistician will be the use of risk models to screen a population and the use of risk
defined, interpreted, and presented as a symbiotic structure. models to decide whether to take a preventive intervention that
has both beneficial and adverse effects.
Absolute Risk Prediction
Instructors: Mitchell H. Gail and Ruth Pfeiffer of the National
ENAR 2010
Institutes of Health It is time to think about invited sessions for ENAR 2010, which
The absolute (or “crude”) risk is the probability that an individ-
will be held March 21–24 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Anyone
ual who is free of a given disease at an initial age, a, will develop
who is interested in organizing an invited session or who has
that disease in the subsequent interval (a, t). Absolute risk is
ideas for one should contact the section’s 2010 program chair,
reduced by mortality from competing risks. Models of absolute
Liang Li, at
lil2@ccf.org.
risk that depend on covariates have been used to design inter-
A typical session consists of four 30-minute talks or three
vention studies, counsel patients regarding their risks of disease,
30-minute talks followed by a 30 minute discussion. June 11
and inform clinical decisions such as whether to take tamox-
is the deadline for proposals. It is best to have a well-defined
ifen to prevent breast cancer. This course will define absolute
topic and commitments from participants by June 11. The
risk, and we will discuss methodological issues relevant to the
more detailed the proposal, the better the chances it will be
development and evaluation of risk prediction models. Various
selected, as this is a highly competitive process.
JSM 2010
It is also time to start thinking about invited sessions for next
year’s Joint Statistical Meetings, which will be held August 1–5
in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Anyone interested in
organizing an invited session or who has ideas for one should
contact the section’s 2010 program chair, Hormuzd Katki, at
katkih@mail.nih.gov.
A typical invited session consists of three 30-minute talks
followed by a 10-minute invited discussion and 10 minutes
of floor discussion. However, other formats are possible. The
2009 program is a good source for examples.
Remember, the most mature ideas will have the advantage
when competing for the limited number of slots, so it is best
to have your ideas in final form by the middle of June. The
Biometrics Section will have at least four invited sessions, but if
we generate enough good ideas, we will be able to compete for
additional slots.
Please also submit ideas for short courses to the section’s
2009–2010 Continuing Education chair, Jerry Heatley, at
jerry.heatley@thoratec.com.
Vote for Officers of the Biometrics Section
There are two open positions for Biometrics Section offi-
cers: chair-elect and Council on Sections representative. You
can cast your ballot online at
www.amstat.org. The candi-
dates for chair-elect are J. Jack Lee of MD Anderson Cancer
Center and Joan F. Hilton of the University of California,
San Francisco. The two candidates for Council on Sections
representative are Sowmya R. Rao of Massachusetts General
Hospital and Mousumi Banerjee of the University of Michigan.
Section members can vote on these and other positions within
the ASA. ■
50 AMSTAT NEWS MAY 2009
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