Cloud needs seven years to mature
7
Gartner outlines three phases of evolution for Cloud Computing market through 2015 and beyond.
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WSFILE
Gartner says that technologically
aggressive application development nology to be the preferred, but not
organizations should look to cloud the exclusive, choice for the majori-
computing for tactical projects ty of opportunistic and architec-
through 2011, during which time the turally simple application develop-
market will begin to mature and be ment efforts among Global 2000
dominated by a select group of ven- enterprises, and as a result, some
dors. Following this period, Gartner will seek to expand their reliance
predicts that the market will see a on SEAP platforms to include
surge of new vendors and subse- longer-term strategic (systematic)
quent consolidation as cloud com- investments.
puting becomes appealing to more
mainstream application development many early SEAP vendors will focus Phase 3: 2012 to 2015 and
organizations. By 2015, cloud com- on rapid-application-development- Beyond — Mainstream
puting will have been commoditized oriented tools and deployment fea- Critical Mass and
and will be the preferred solution for tures, making their solutions partic- Commoditization
many application development proj- ularly attractive among end-user In 2013, a small number of large
ects. computing efforts and social-com- SEAP providers will dominate the
puting projects. market, providing de facto stan-
Phase 1: 2007 to 2011 — dards. These vendors will primarily
Pioneers and Trailblazers Phase 2: 2010 to 2013 — leverage proprietary technologies
This will largely be a market devel- Market Consolidation developed during the previous five
opment phase. Through 2011, given Gartner predicts that by 2012, the years, but they will also widely sup-
the natural immaturity of SEAP solu- SEAP market will become over- port intracloud application pro-
tions, compounded by their propri- crowded with a broad range of solu- gramming interfaces to establish a
etary nature, Gartner advises most tions from large and small vendors, SEAP technology “fabric,” linking
SEAP adopters to focus on oppor- and competitive pressure will drive cloud-based solutions across ven-
tunistic solutions — quick-hit, tacti- many weaker players from the mar- dor platforms.
cal opportunities where time to mar- ket, resulting in acquisition activity. Market expansion into increasingly
ket and developer productivity out- During this consolidation phase, conservative user bases will further
weigh long-term technical viability. SEAP infrastructure will become shift market emphasis from innova-
Although some rare exceptions will increasingly attractive to a broader tion to stability, cost and invest-
exist, mainstream IT developers range of potential adopters, resulting ment protection. Competition
should focus primarily on SEAP in a more mainstream and conserva- between proprietary lock-in and
investments where return on invest- tive user base. Consequently, the open-SEAP technologies will
ment can be acquired within 18 to 24 “ability to execute” will become increase and, by 2014, concern over
months. equally as important as technical lock-in will lead to critical-mass
innovation and market vision among support for one or more open-
As a result of a focus on technical most mainstream adopters. Return- source SEAP software stacks.
merit over investment protection, on-investment time frames will be These open-SEAP stacks will begin
technology providers with the extended from tactical short-term to compete with proprietary solu-
strongest market “vision” will garner opportunities to longer, strategic tions and slowly growing portions
the most success among early time frames of three to five years. of the SEAP market beyond the
adopters. Building on this trend, By 2013, Gartner expects SEAP tech- 2015 time frame.
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