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coverage of healthy, younger folks that makes the whole system financially viable. To stay in business, they would have to sharply hike their premiums. That in turn would only narrow the customer base, as consumers would drop policies they could no longer afford. Graboyes, a professor of
violates common sense. “I’m quite confident about this,” he says. “There are a lot of people who defend the statute but who know they are going
healthcare economics at two Virginia universities, says the resulting two-tiered healthcare system, with 36 states follow- ing one set of laws and 11 states following others, would “create some incredible tornadic winds in the political sphere.” For most states, Obamacare in its current form, would no longer exist. Greve, a member of the board of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, sees a “very good chance” that five justices will conclude the IRS interpretation
The Deciders O
There are a lot of people who defend the statute but who know they are going to lose, even if they don’t say that in public.” — Michael S. Greve, George Mason School of Law
to lose, even if they don’t say that in public.” The four liberal justices on the bench — Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Ste- phen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor, and Elena Kagan — are all expected to support the IRS’ interpretation, based on the view that statutes should be interpreted to achieve socially desir-
able ends. Similarly, no one expects conservative Justices Antonin Scalia, Samuel Alito, or Clarence Thomas to stray from the view that a law should mean what it says. That leaves the outcome
hanging on two justices’ deci- sions: Justice Anthony Kennedy and Chief Justice Roberts. How they will vote is anybody’s guess, but there are several factors that make conservative lawyers con- fident in the outcome. That Kennedy might tend to be suspicious of giving federal
bureaucrats too much leeway to tweak the law is suggested in his reaction to what some saw as Roberts’ flip-flop on Obamacare in 2012. In a surprisingly sharp critique, Kennedy described Roberts’ reinterpretation of the fine associated with the individual man- date as “vast judicial overreaching.”
For Burwell (pro ACA subsidies)
bamacare’s fate will hinge on the decisions of the nine Supreme Court justices. But insiders believe the positions of only two justices are genuinely undetermined:
For King (against ACA subsidies)
Justice Antonin Scalia, 78 (DOB March 11) Joined Court: 1986 Appointed by: Ronald Reagan
Clarence Thomas, 66 Joined Court: 1991 Appointed by: George H.W. Bush
Justice Stephen G. Breyer, 76 Joined Court: 1994 Appointed by: Bill Clinton
Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 81 (DOB March 15) Joined Court: 1993 Appointed by: Bill Clinton
Justice Elena Kagan, 54 Joined Court: 2010 Appointed by: Barack Obama
Samuel Anthony A. Alito, 64 Joined Court: 2006 Appointed by: George W. Bush
Justice Sonia Sotomayor, 60 Joined Court: 2009 Appointed by: Barack Obama
10 NEWSMAX | MARCH 2015
JUSTICES/STEVE PETTEWAY/COLLECTION OF THE SUPREME COURT OF THE UNITED STATES
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