NEWS BUSINESS
LightCounting: cloud to drive demand for optics to 2023, with sales for 400GbE predicted to triple
The cloud was a key driver for the optical
communications market last year, and is likely to be so again in 2018, according to LightCounting’s latest Optical Communications Market Forecast Report. The market research firm’s
report provides a detailed market demand forecast through 2023 for optical components and modules used in Ethernet, fibre channel, SONET/SDH, CWDM/DWDM, wireless infrastructure, FTTx and high-performance computing (HPC) applications, using key inputs such as an analysis of the business and infrastructure spending of the top 15 service providers and leading internet companies and sales data from 2010 to 2017 for more than 30 transceiver vendors, including more than 20 vendors that shared their confidential sales information. The forecast is based on
LightCounting’s proprietary forecast model, which correlates
and ZTE in 2016. Most of the excess inventory was depleted by the end of 2017, but suppliers continue to report slower than expected business with these Chinese customers. Of course, the recent ban on
Global sales of optical transceivers by application
transceiver sales with network traffic growth and the projected deployments of LTE and FTTx systems for broadband access. The report states that demand
for 100GbE transceivers from operators of mega data centres in the United States remains strong and cloud companies in China are starting to deploy this technology as well. Sales for 400GbE optics are
also expected to expand the cloud
market segment (including in China) from approximately $2 billion in 2017 to more than $6 billion in 2023. Decline in the rest of the market
in 2017 was put down, mainly, to weaker than expected sales of optics to Huawei and ZTE. Suppliers of optical components and modules first reported sharp drops in sales to these customers in March of 2017, related to excess inventory accumulated by Huawei
sales of US-made products to ZTE has created further confusion. However, LightCounting noted that top-ranking US government officials are heading to Beijing to attempt to resolve the trade disputes. The current forecast for sales of
optics to China in 2018 assumes the best-case scenario for resolving the situation with ZTE and Huawei, which account for about 50 per cent of the global sales of telecom optical networking equipment. Needless to say, sales of optics used in telecom equipment will drop sharply in 2018 should the trade war be prolonged, as many projects will be delayed. The long-term market forecast, says the report, is unlikely to change.
Alternative FTTP networks reaching nearly one million UK premises, says INCA
Nearly one million UK homes and businesses are now in reach of ultrafast full fibre connectivity via alternative network providers (altnets), according to a new report. The Independent Networks Cooperative
Association (INCA) and Point Topic partnered to publish Metrics for the UK altnet sector: Scale, coverage, ambitions, concerns. Providing an overview of the UK’s altnet
operator sector at the end of 2017 and early 2018, it includes both fixed and wireless network operators. Drawing on survey responses from INCA members, UKWISPA and Point Topic research programmes, the research additionally estimates that alternative providers with fixed wireless access networks can reach up to a further two million premises, mainly in rural areas. By 2025, it is expected that the number of
homes and businesses passed by full fibre infrastructure supplied by altnets will rise to nearly 14.25 million, covering 50 per cent of
The INCA and Point Topic report states that
alternative FTTP networks have reached nearly one million UK premises
the population, which may include some double counting from overbuild. This will include around 4.8 million live connections. The report also forecasts that an
estimated 1.92 million premises will have the ability to order altnet fixed network high- speed broadband services by the end of 2019, with an estimated 554,700 subscribers connected. Altnets currently account for
207,500 live connections on fixed networks and an estimated 100,500 on Fixed Wireless Access infrastructure in the UK. These figures place altnets collectively as the third competitor in new full fibre infrastructure provision, alongside BT Openreach and Virgin Media. The altnet sector has been buoyed by announcements of more than £2.5 billion of private sector investment and a supportive public policy environment. Digital and culture minister Margot James
said: ‘It’s fantastic to see the growth of the new companies building fibre and wireless networks. We’re creating the right environment to stimulate industry investment, and I’m delighted by the altnets’ ambitious plans to reach millions more homes and businesses over the next few years. We are supporting these goals through government investment in new fibre networks, 5G projects and by removing business rates for new fibre deployment for five years.’
@fibresystemsmag |
www.fibre-systems.com
8 FIBRE SYSTEMS Issue 20 • Summer 2018
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