Duncan Willsher


“The story we have been talking about today is positive, but if supply doesn’t change then it’s not as good a story as it might otherwise be.” Duncan Willsher, 20-20 Trustees


We have positions in Nigeria and Kenya, but have taken profits in some investments in those countries after valuations improved. We also like Bahrain and Qatar, which are now included in the traditional benchmark indices that most investors follow. In general, we like countries that are in IMF programmes and are improving structurally like Ecuador, Egypt and Ukraine. We are involved with Argentina from a valuation perspective. There are enough good stories in emerging markets and not only in the higher-yielding space. We are always looking to optimise and capture some of the changes in risk premium or dynamics. Brazil is becoming more efficient, the central bank is no longer the only provider of credit for the economy. We are cautiously optimistic. Trow: It would be great if Turkey could only do the right thing for five minutes. If you had a 20% to 25% yield you would ride it home all day long, but every time Turkey gets past elections and has just about stabilised one of the biggest trading opportunities is still too rich for most people. Lasocki: On a short-to-mid-term perspective, Russia could be interesting, even though it isn’t attrac- tively priced.


Political risk has not been priced in because if Russia could resist the temptation to keep interfering in Ukraine it’s a good turnaround story. From a central bank perspective, it’s been managed extremely well.


8 June–July 2019 portfolio institutional roundtable: Emerging market debt


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