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Focus for investors in Latin America will continue to be on the countries that provided most of the head- lines in 2018. The success of Brazil’s pension reform negotiations will determine how well credits perform this year with early indications of optimism. In Mexico, all eyes will be on Pemex’s credit strengthening strategies and the new administration’s conviction to see out its election pledges. In Argentina, presiden- tial election poll trends will add volatility to sovereign and credit markets, particularly if President Mauricio Macri’s approval ratings continue to disappoint on the downside and populist alternatives get traction.
We believe that global macro factors will be the main drivers for emerging market credit for the remainder of the year, with standalone fundamentals and technicals remaining relatively stable. After a strong per- formance of the asset class in the year to date, we believe there is further room for tightening but expect the rally to be more gradual. Primary markets are expected to remain active and the pipeline should con- tinue to be strong, providing the Latin American credit market with liquidity to further enhance returns.
Read the latest updates on Latin American markets provided Santander Asset Management UK by visiting
http://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/institutions/en_GB/institutions/Markets-and- Insights
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This document is for the use of investment professionals only and is not for onward distribution to retail investors. This presentation is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. The information relating to investments is based on research and analysis we have carried out or brought for our own use and may have been made available to other members of the Santander Group which, in turn, may have acted on it. Opinions expressed within this document, if any, are current opinions as of the date stated and do not constitute investment advice; the views are subject to change and do not necessarily reflect the views of Santander Asset Management as a whole or any part thereof. The value of investments and any income is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up and may be affected by exchange rate fluctuations. This means that an investor may not get back the amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
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June–July 2019 portfolio institutional roundtable: Emerging market debt 25
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