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Stuart Trow


“A slowdown in global trade growth will start to impact everybody, not just emerging markets.” Stuart Trow, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development


positive view are long term. We always hear that emerging market growth will be higher than in devel- oped markets. That ebbs and flows and narrows and widens but it’s a persistent pattern that emerging markets are always higher than developed markets by a decent margin. Demographics and that these countries are not particularly indebted compared to their developed mar- ket peers underpins the general view that “we are cautiously optimistic”. People don’t tend to see the drops. The drops can be flow-driven or idiosyncratic exogenous events, which, of course, are hard to predict. In most cases, the drops are generally recovered and the persistent cautiously optimistic view has been rewarded because defaults are low in this asset class. Deltcheva: The asset class is quite reasonably diversified. We are not talking about 16 countries as we were 20 years ago; we are talking about 80. These days you not only have benchmark funds offering exposure to the pure strategies of hard currency or local currency, but short-duration funds that limit interest rate, liquidity or credit risk. In general, it has been a traumatising period for asset managers. Since 2008, investment horizons have shortened and asset managers have been forced to change their investment style to be more active. We are in a new normal environment so managers have to capture the macro trends that may be driv- ing the asset class. In that respect, we are optimistic. Our experience is that you could use derivatives


12 June–July 2019 portfolio institutional roundtable: Emerging market debt


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