ORC
We couldn’t resist this image when talking complexity versus simplicity (one-design sailors know the right answer). Here we have the impossibly complex, brilliant, fast-improving, but still mind-blowingly expensive to make scientists’ wet dream that is the jaw-dropping driverless taxi. The taxi will (usually) safely get you from A to B, logging every millisecond while adjusting for changes in humidity; but the tidy little eScooter is binary-simple and will often get you across the city faster; then again, until they ripped up most of the tracks after the 2006 quake San Francisco’s analogue cable cars were often the most reliable and in heavy traffic the fastest thing out there
More or less?
As one of the custodians of the world’s most complicated handicap systems I’m crucially aware of Ockham’s Razor, ‘plurality should not be posited without necessity’, first coined in the 14th century, more recently simplified to ‘keep it simple, stupid’. All well and good, but what if a decent dose of complexity can
make life better? AI analysis of medical scans, Space X satellites, self-driving cars. In our daily lives we have come to rely on majestically complex software systems that are delivered to our fingertips; buy a bus ticket, get a weather forecast, find driving directions and ETA. As human beings, with only the same brain as Ockham, we can use these systems because, while they are complex, they are not complicated to use. In the Offshore Racing Congress we are wrestling with the problem
of complexity and complication. We do have a complex method to provide yacht handicaps. The performance of the boat is predicted using Velocity Prediction Software, the sailing speed is predicted in winds from 6 to 24kt on all points of sail. On each point of sail the VPP picks the most appropriate sails from those onboard… This process is complex, but not complicated; the measurers submit
the dimensions and hull shape, the Manager software delivers the certificate. We know how each boat in the race fleet will perform against her competitors in each wind speed on a given point of sailing, beat, reach or run. This sophisticated VPP engine now generates more than 10,000
certificates a year for Cruiser Racers (ORCCLUB and ORCi), Multihulls (ORCmh), Superyachts (ORCsy) and most recently the J Class (ORCj). The aim is to let owners race the boat they sail without the need to optimise for anticipated race conditions. The $64,000 question is how to use all this detailed knowledge
of boat performance for the benefit of the competitors! In an ideal world at the end of the race the scorer would know
the course geometry (leg lengths and bearing) and the wind speed and direction. Then each boat can be raced around that ‘constructed’
44 SEAHORSE
course and the predicted elapsed time can be calculated. The race winner is the boat that does best against that post-hoc calculated elapsed time. Given perfect knowledge of the race conditions it offers a scoring option that acknowledges the variation of boat performance as the conditions change. But, and it’s a big but, there are three problems with this: one,
we don’t know the wind speed and direction at every point on the racecourse, and two, the scoring can only be done after the last boat has finished and three, the tacticians do not know the time allowances when on the racecourse. ORC Polar Curve scoring and the Scoring wind system work,
particularly for windward-leeward races where the sea state is slight. Once the waves start to affect the boats’ speed the Scoring wind starts to be much lower than the actual wind. For Superyacht regattas, which have very mixed fleets and
staggered starts, courses as close as possible to ORC Circular Random scoring are used to good effect. The wind speed and direc- tion are observed by mark boats and a single value used for the entire race. The time allowances are based on circular random handicaps with five different wind ranges, from low to strong. But how can we do a better job of offering TCFs for a condition-
sensitive handicap system before the race starts? This year the ORC is trialling Weather Routing Scoring. Immedi-
ately before the start the race is simulated using the polars from each boat’s certificate and the weather forecast. The predicted elapsed times from the simulation determine the time allowances for the race. If the weather forecast is perfect, then this gives the most equitable handicap possible. This looks like another layer of complexity, on a system that is
already much maligned for its complexity… How can this be a good thing? Because it delivers a table of TCFs before the start that reflects the anticipated race conditions. At the point of delivery it is as simple for the competitor as a single-number system.
STORM PHOTO
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