INDUSTRY INSIDER: MARK MCGUINNESS
Predictions for 2026 and the quiet re-wiring of online casino and sports betting
If there’s one lesson the last few years have taught me, it’s this: progress in iGaming rarely arrives with a bang. It tends to creep in quietly, reshaping behaviour before the industry has fully agreed on what just happened, says our Industry Insider, Mark McGuinness.
s we look ahead to 2026, I believe we are standing on the edge of one of those moments. Not a radical reinvention of online casino or sports betting, but a re-wiring. A shift driven less by technology alone and more by human attention, cultural behaviour, and how people actually want to engage in a crowded digital world.
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Three themes stand out to me as genuinely forward-looking. Each one challenges some of our long-held assumptions about engagement, product depth, and player value. And each one will force leadership teams to rethink how they measure success.
THEME 1 - THE WORLD CUP 2026: A DEFINING MOMENT FOR PREDICTIONS
The FIFA World Cup in June 2026 will be more than another major betting event. I see
50 JANUARY 2026 GIO
it as a proving ground for whether prediction-led formats can establish themselves as a true complementary product class to fixed-odds sports betting, or even redefine how players engage with sport and culture altogether.
Predictions strip betting back to something far more instinctive. Simple questions. Short timeframes. Clear outcomes. Instead of navigating deep market trees, players are reacting in the moment. Will there be a goal in the next ten minutes? Will the next attack end in a corner? These are decisions people already debate in WhatsApp groups and on sofas around the world.
What’s powerful here is not just simplicity, but familiarity. Prediction mechanics mirror everyday behaviour: voting, polling, reacting. That makes them culturally intuitive in a way traditional betting products often aren’t, especially for digital-native audiences.
Crucially, this doesn’t mean predictions will replace fixed odds. I don’t believe that narrative holds up. Fixed odds betting remains deeply ingrained, particularly for seasoned bettors and pre-match wagering. But predictions change the rhythm of engagement. They introduce more frequent, lower-friction interaction points during live events. For operators, the strategic question heading into 2026 isn’t “should we offer predictions?” It’s how they are positioned. Are they treated as a bolt-on feature, or designed as a distinct experience with its own user journey, risk logic, and responsible play considerations?
The World Cup will amplify this question at scale. Those who get the balance right will see predictions enhance engagement without cannibalising core sportsbook revenue. Those who don’t may find themselves watching attention drift elsewhere.
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