CONFERENCE REPORT


IMAGINING THE FUT OF DIY RETAILING


This year’s Global DIY Summit took place during the UK general election, making for much speculation about the market and what opportunities would be lost or created following events in world politics and an ever-changing changing retail landscape. Fiona Garcia reports


T


he first day of the conference opened with a montage of news headlines and coverage from events over the


past year, including stories about Brexit, Donald Trump’s election, David Cameron’s departure and much more. The AV presentation concluded with the phrase “join us on a new journey into the future – the future of DIY”. With all that has been happening in the world of politics and the timing of the conference coinciding with the summer’s snap election, this made for a very emotive and powerful start to proceedings. The event, which has grown every


year, welcomed 1,000 delegates to the Maritim hotel in Berlin and


organisers EDRA and Fediyma said they had actually had to turn people away this year because they were out of space. “You never want to stop customers coming but this year we had to,” said EDRA general secretary John Herbert during his welcome address. The Summit focused on ‘A New


Era’, hoping to take a glimpse into the future of the home improvement market and Mr Herbert told delegates: “All of us have the willingness to address challenges and the openness to share them.” The conference this year focused on what Mr Herbert called the “urgent trends and challenges” of digitalisation, disruption and innovation, as well as global challenges and modern slavery, as he concluded: “let’s meet, listen and discuss”.


PLAN FOR THE UNEXPECTED


Like many of the speakers at the event, Deloitte’s Dr Michael Grampp said: “I can’t remember a time since the Second World War when there was so much turmoil.” His advice to suppliers and retailers in the DIY industry is to plan for the unexpected. Listing issues like Trump’s presidency and the UK’s vote to the leave the European Union (EU), Dr Grampp said: “These are things we all thought would never happen. The next inflexible may be around the corner. If you don’t have a back-up plan, your business is in trouble. I’ll give you the potential next five things that may never happen but you should be continuously planning.” Dr Grampp listed his five ‘black swans’: first, populism, a political strategy designed to appeal to and that champions the common man; and second, the Trump administration. “Trump’s aim is to bring high-value jobs back to the US,” he said. “Most risk is around trade nationalisation and the increase in trade protectionism. This is something you have to watch out for – it will have a big impact and hurt both parties involved.” The third black swan he believes is most likely. “In about three and a half years we will see Brexit, and that could bring the disintegration of the Eurozone,” he said. “Countries like Greece will never get competitive within the Euro. It’s very hard for an industry that depends so heavily


12 DIY WEEK 11 AUGUST 2017


on export.” His fourth black swan is the disintegration of the EU. “A recent survey of attitudes to the EU revealed that more and more people don’t see its benefits,” he explained. “Despite this, the outlook is very robust and positive. There are lots of benefits but they don’t get communicated.” The final inflexible, his fifth black swan, is the risk from monetary policy and asset price inflation. “The politicians did not use the time they had to find a solution to the recession,” he said. “Low interest rates simply manipulate the price mechanism of assets and creates bubbles. DIY depends a lot on the housing market, so if we have another crash, that could mean good night!” However, growth is predicted for the coming years and in his forecasts. He believes world growth is climbing back but not to its previous heights. “Indicators are looking firmer and more robust than at the start of the year, particularly Japan, but Europe is doing better than expected. Consumer confidence is on the rise, which is good for the DIY industry,” he continued. “People don’t save as much as before because of low interest rates, so they invest in refurbishments. However, it is still an incomplete recovery - the bottom 50% of income earners have seen no real change in income. Now you see why Donald Trump was elected!”


www.diyweek.net


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28