COMMENT
Things can only get better. Or worse
T
here’s an old joke, not that funny, but bear with me, that you can get any business forecast you want if you only ask sufficient economists what they think. It’s a bit like that at the moment. If you look at the forecasts from the Construction Products Association you get one, slightly gloomy response. On the other hand, the monthly S&P PMI figures are rather more upbeat. Well, I say upbeat, of course, I mean just a tad less miserable. The CPA has downgraded its Winter forecasts thus: overall output is expected to rise by 1.7% this year, down from October’s 2.8% growth forecast. The private housing forecast is even more gloomy, at 1.5%, it’s a huge drop from the Autumn expectation of 4.0%. Private housing RM&I fares even worse, revised down to a contraction of 1.0% in 2026, a second year of decline. The reason behind that massive drop in confidence in private housebuilding should be fairly clear, that huge 1.5million homes target over the life of the Parliament was never going to happen. You knew that. I knew that. We all knew that. To be honest, I even think ‘they’ knew that, but since when did a sitting government let the facts get in the way of a good election manifesto promise?
Uncertainty is the killer here. Without the certain knowledge that there are sufficient skilled workers to do the work that target was always going to remain a rather hazy ambition. But it’s not just that much talked-about skills shortage that is behind the lack of housebuilding confidence. In order for housebuilders to feel happy about investing in their sites – with all the attendant benefits for the rest of the supply chain – they need to know that they are likely to have some customers. Demand and affordability, and the lack of both, continue to
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EDITORIAL
Group Managing Editor: Fiona Russell Horne 01622 699101 07721 841382
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weigh heavily. And, while recent planning reforms should support delivery in the long term, there are still constraints in the form of Biodiversity Net Gain requirements, water and nutrient neutrality rules, S106 and CIL contributions, and increasingly complex Building Regulations. All this affects site viability. As will the Future Homes Standard, the Building Safety Levy and the Landfill Tax. We’re 18 months into that five-year term, and will need to build 375,000 houses a year to get to that target. Not a chance that will happen, seeing as we’ve never managed it. Without something to reduce costs and boost demand, housebuilding is likely to remain bumping along the bottom. So far, so gloomy. Let’s turn to the S&P Global UK Construction PMI. January’s index was up to 46.4, from December’s five-and-a-half-year low of 40.1. It’s still below the magic growth point of 50, but it was the strongest result since last June. According to this particular set of figures, all the sectors saw things getting less bad, as it were. Even though house building remains the weakest performer, with an index of 39.3, but even here its pace of decline slowed. The S&P report showed confidence coming back, gradually, doubling even: 38% of firms expected output to rise over the next 12 months, compared with just 17% who anticipated the opposite. What’s fuelling this heady optimism? Could it be the possibility of lower borrowing costs, even though the Bank kept interest rates the same last week? Or the fact that infrastructure spending is likely to increase? Or, maybe, that things just have to get better, because, well, it’s too depressing to think otherwise? BMJ
Fiona Russell-Horne Group Managing Editor - BMJ
From the ashes a fire shall be woken, A light from the shadows shall spring JRR Tolkein
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CONTENTS 4 Newsround
Branch openings, merchant expansion and industry news.
8 News Extra
The BMF has been working with Government on water regulations. Plus, change is afoot at Marsh Industries
10 People
Who’s moving where within the sector 12 Rising Stars
Cowal Building & Plumbing Supplies’ Kyle Sinclair shares his journey so far
16 Viewpoint
Our guest columnists share their insights, on insulating timber frame, own-label branding, and the gender-gap in workwear.
20 Merchant Focus
Keeping a community focus in the business is important, as BMJ finds out
22 Timber
What’s going down in the world of wood 24 IT
How data services can serve you ADVERTISING
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Publisher: Paul Ryder
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26 Plumbing and Drainage BMJ investigates material matters, installation issues and water hygiene. Plus, Naylor is investing for the future.
34 Industry Voice The latest news from the BMF
36 Product News What’s new from suppliers
38 And finally
News from all around, and the Prize Crossword
February 2026
www.buildersmerchantsjournal.net
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