| 37
WHITHER US WHITE OAK? There is, it says, sufficient white oak to
meet demand for the timber for the next 10 to 20 years, but populations of young trees are declining significantly, with saplings and seedlings in some regions increasingly sparse.
“The challenges include lack of active
In some parts of the US forest, white oak saplings are becoming increasingly scarce
Concerns over the health and future abundance of US white oak have led to the launch of an initiative to study the species and develop a management programme to improve its prospects. The White Oak Initiative (WOI – www.
whiteoakinitiative.org) is a public-private collaboration, including universities, private landowners, the timber and forest sector, and the wine, spirits and cooperage industries.
forest management, leading to dense, low quality stands, which block the growth of quality trees and the regeneration of new ones,” says the WOI, adding that widespread insect damage and climate change are adding to problems. Without action, it forecasts, the acreage of white oak could be down as much as 77% in 50 years. “To restore the species, we need to think, plan and act decades ahead in order to prevent a crisis situation,” says the WOI. “Today, we must actively manage our oak forests, remove competing tree species, treat insects and disease and create openings for this sun-loving tree to flourish.” Working with the US Forest Service and
17 state conservation agencies, the WOI is backed by two “co-ordinated landscape
scale restoration grants”, which have brought together “significant” private, federal and state funds to develop a white oak conservation assessment and action plan. It will also back landowner surveys, regeneration demonstration sites, technical tools for foresters, regional workshops and state “oak implementation projects”. Research will look at white oak health, population, age, diversity, harvest demand, economic and jobs value, threat analysis and tree genetics. The WOI says the white oak is a critical
part of the forest ecology, plus of major economic value.
“It is the cornerstone species of the
eastern US and provides vital habitat and food for wildlife, it supports rural economies and supplies a variety of industries, including furniture, flooring, cabinetry and barrel making,” it says. “But without action, our white oak forests will disappear, with significant impacts on ecosystems and timber supplies.” ■
Additionally, he said, the pandemic disrupted production, causing shutdowns when employees were infected or exposed to the virus, while Covid mitigation safe work practices cut into efficiencies. The 2019/20 winter added to market stress. Mr Johnson’s research over 26 years at HMR has shown that adverse weather alone rarely causes chronic supply constraints in the hardwood sector, but it exacerbates pre- existing supply strains.
“The current situation is no exception. The US hardwood supply grid was beat down before winter 2020 began,” he said. Further curbing capacity, some hardwood mills also switched production to softwood to capitalise on soaring demand from US construction.
Due to these various brakes on output, mills were unable to keep pace as economies emerged from lockdown and consumption of US hardwood started to climb in America itself and worldwide.
The result, as buyers will know around the globe, has been significant price inflation – albeit, as Mr Johnson highlights, that prices for most grade lumber items were depressed prior to the pandemic.
While demand has risen across US export markets, growth in some has been especially strong.
“Vietnam continues to expand as a major destination for US hardwoods,”
said Mr Johnson. “Mexico has also gained momentum, primarily due to US business for manufactured goods, cabinets in particular.” Chinese buyers have also been increasingly active, proving particularly reluctant to shift on price initially, but ultimately having to accept the inevitable.
“China ignored or refused to believe there was fundamental damage to the US hardwood supply grid and that China-centric grade lumber inventories had greatly declined,” said Mr Johnson. “That said, this is not a uniquely Chinese buyer trait to question supply issues. It’s a tendency of buyers, in general, especially those distanced from the resource and some rejected the idea of shortages as recently as November. Sometimes it takes hearing ‘no’ a second or third time before it sinks in.”
US hardwood prices are now up across the board.
“In no particular order, I’d list rises in walnut, white oak, red oak, ash, poplar, cherry and hard and soft maple as particularly pronounced,” said Mr Johnson. “But grade lumber and industrial products in all species have experienced inflationary pressure as constrained production and contracted supplies are market wide-conditions. “Moreover, we’re now experiencing pandemic aftershocks with transportation problems and rising costs, which are further escalating prices.”
So far, mills have not been able to return to normal production levels, with Covid-19 still an obstacle and continued problems hiring employees. However, said Mr Johnson, supply is now on an upward trajectory. What is more, the outlook for consumption is set increasingly positive, with US demographics pointing to longer term market growth. “Demand rose as Covid-19 constraints on downstream markets relaxed and state and local economies reopened,” said Mr Johnson. “But it’s my strong belief the surge is due to more than post-lockdown pent-up consumerism. The US is also undergoing a population age shift where the largest generation is of home-buying age now and the second largest will be in around 10 years. Together, these two generations account for over half the US population and are under 40 years of age. Imagine the impact when both are at home-buying age simultaneously. The US won’t manufacture all the goods these consumers will buy, but US hardwoods should get a measurable bump in domestic and international markets.” ■
FURTHER INFORMATION
For more on Hardwood Market Report:
www.hmr.com
www.ttjonline.com | May/June 2021 | TTJ
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85
