24 | Opinion: 2025 Predictions
A lot will depend on the UK market for fencing and pallets, and they will be influenced by the strength of the economy and consumer spending. These could go either way. On the one hand the negative narrative of the Labour government has undermined consumer confidence, and businesses face significant additional operating costs with the increases to employers’ national insurance and the minimum wage. On the other hand, a steady reduction in interest rates is expected alongside a real term rise in wages. How those competing factors will play out is both key and difficult to predict.
Stuart Goodall Confor chief executive
So far, the 2020s have proven to be a volatile decade, with big swings in markets and prices set against a backdrop of global political uncertainty and a cost-of-living crisis.
With that volatility in mind, it’s difficult to predict whether 2025 will be a good year or not for the UK forestry and timber industry. There are some optimistic signs that both supply and demand factors could be improving, but events could easily turn everything on its head.
Amongst the positives is the message I took from the excellent TDUK Softwood Conference. Olle Berg of Setra forecast that global demand could edge up while global supply could remain tight, given the widespread damage we’ve seen to forests in Canada and Central Europe, plus restrictions on wood fibre supply in Sweden. Such a scenario should see timber prices edge up, which would be positive for UK sawn and panel producers.
I don’t expect levels of new
planting to surpass last year’s modern-day record, but I do expect the upward trend across the UK to continue, with a key confidence indicator being the proportion that is conifer
The UK government’s support for the Timber in Construction Roadmap is expected in the new year, and in time that will hopefully add to demand. We will also be looking to the new government to work with Confor on the implementation of the National Wood Strategy for England. Both of these would signal government’s support for the industry.
Looking at the forest end of the supply chain, timber prices are generally expected to continue to trend upwards. I don’t expect levels of new planting to surpass last year’s modern-day record, but I do expect the upward trend across the UK to continue, with a key confidence indicator being the proportion that is conifer.
While there are no national elections scheduled for 2025, I expect we’ll still be establishing the scope and depth of the UK government’s support for the industry and of course there are devolved elections in May 2026. In Scotland, the SNP government has already fired the election starting pistol with a highly political budget on December 4. In summary, 2025 may be less eventful (but also potentially more positive) than 2024 for timber sales, forestry activity generally and woodland creation. And that would be very welcome! ■
Helen Hewitt British Woodworking Federation chief executive
As we kick off 2025, I am filled with immense pride in how the British Woodworking Federation (BWF), its members, and the broader woodworking industry have navigated the last 12 months. From a shifting political landscape to economic uncertainties, our sector has shown real resilience and adaptability. The past year brought a mix of hurdles, including a change in government and a budget that both supports and complicates our sector’s efforts. Despite these obstacles, glimmers of optimism lie ahead. According to the Construction Products Association (CPA), construction output is forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2025, with promising indicators in private housing, repair, maintenance, and improvement (RMI), and industrial projects. These growth areas signal opportunities for our members, especially as we align our efforts with key industry trends and government priorities.
2025 will be a key year for BWF for providing advice and guidance for BWF members and the broader construction industry to navigate regulatory change... From transitioning to European standards for timber fire doors, to ongoing government consultations
TTJ | January/February 2025 |
www.ttjonline.com
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