| Hydrogen
According to the International Energy Agency’s 2024 Global hydrogen review, global hydrogen demand reached 97 Mt in 2023 (up 2.5% compared with 2022). However, the majority of this was produced from unabated fossil fuels. Green hydrogen production only becomes sustainable when powered by renewable energy sources, and low-emission production remains under 1 Mt/y. Electrolysis capacity has surged to nearly 520 GW, with potential output of 49 megatons per annum (Mtpa) by 2030, but scalability and infrastructure remain challenges. Still, green hydrogen is gaining traction in the Middle East. Strategies like Saudi Vision 2030 and the UAE’s National Hydrogen Strategy highlight hydrogen’s role in reducing oil dependence and attracting global investment.
Lowest hydrogen production costs The Middle East produces some of the cheapest renewable energy in the world, thanks to its high levels of solar irradiation and steady, consistent wind conditions. It has seen solar power purchase agreement (PPA) rates as low as $0.0104/kWh in Saudi Arabia in 2021, a world-record-setting price. The upcoming 2 GW Al Sadawi PV project is set to continue this trend, with a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of just $0.012926/kWh — highlighting the region’s sustained potential for ultra-low-cost renewable energy.
The Middle East is well-suited to large- scale hydrogen production, with established infrastructure, abundant undeveloped land and low-cost renewable resources. These advantages contribute to some of the world’s lowest hydrogen production costs — $6.54 to $12.66 per kg — compared to $9.88 to $14.31 in Europe.
Beyond its natural geography, the Middle East benefits from established energy infrastructure and expertise. Key ports like Dubai, Sohar and Yanbu are already adapting for green fuel exports. Its proximity to Europe,
with direct maritime access via the Suez Canal and Gulf ports, offers shorter, more efficient routes.
Crucially, green hydrogen also benefits from strong government backing, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman incorporating targets into national strategies to spur financing and local production — reinforcing its political advantage.
Projects and partnerships The Middle East’s hydrogen ambitions aren’t just a pipe dream — implementation is well underway, backed by ideal conditions and major projects. The $8.4 billion NEOM Helios green hydrogen plant — supported by power investor, developer and operator ACWA Power, together with Air Products — is set to begin full- scale production by 2026. The UAE’s Hydrogen Leadership Roadmap also outlines ambitious production goals by 2050.
NEOM Helios, the world’s largest planned green hydrogen facility, aims to produce 600 tons daily. In the UAE, Masdar is collaborating with Siemens Energy and Lufthansa to scale hydrogen for transport. Meanwhile, Oman plans a 25 GW wind–solar electrolyser cluster as part of its own Vision 2040 energy diversification strategy.
Strong competition
Despite the Middle East’s clear advantages and ambitions, scaling any new development brings challenges. It’s unlikely to be all plain sailing — and that includes green hydrogen developments.
NEOM’s budget has risen 70% from its original estimate of $5 billion due to inflation, financing costs and supply chain pressures. Water scarcity in the region also presents a major hurdle, and will likely require innovative solutions like advanced desalination and air- cooled electrolysers. There will be a need for integration with existing infrastructure and grid networks. One of the most effective ways to achieve this is through the use of specialist
smart software, such as COPA-DATA’s zenon® software platform, which can help to manage this process.
In a young and unstable market, political and geographic risks are inevitable. Immature demand and regulation leave strategies vulnerable to policy shifts, while geopolitical tensions could disrupt transport routes — as history has shown.
The Middle East also faces strong competition. Australia plans to be a top hydrogen supplier by 2050 and leads in project development, while Chile aims to become the global low-cost leader by 2040, targeting 1800 GW of capacity. With the market growing crowded, the Middle East must move quickly, scale efficiently, and prioritise cost and sustainability to stay competitive.
Environmental footprint and sustainability
While green hydrogen is often viewed as a climate solution, there are concerns that some of its benefits could be offset. For hydrogen to be genuinely “green,” the electricity used in electrolysis must come exclusively from additional renewable sources. Significant energy losses during conversion, compression, storage and transport have raised concerns about its overall efficiency.
Tackling water scarcity through desalination comes with its own environmental footprint. What’s more, building the infrastructure for large-scale hydrogen deployment isn’t clean by default. It demands vast quantities of steel, concrete and critical minerals, each carrying its own carbon cost.
Without strict sustainability standards and credible third-party certification, green hydrogen’s reputation risks being undermined by upstream or overlooked emissions. These are not minor issues — they will determine which producers gain lasting global trust. This is where the Middle East could really make its mark and set itself apart as not just a low-cost producer, but a dominant force in the global hydrogen economy. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman are already locking in export deals with major markets like Europe and Asia, where domestic supply may struggle to meet demand. NEOM’s agreement with Germany’s SEFE — a state-owned energy company partnering with ACWA Power to supply green hydrogen to Europe — is one example of how the Gulf could help power industrial decarbonisation abroad through hydrogen derivatives like ammonia and methanol. The global race to lead the H2
economy is on,
Hydrogen in the Middle East, more than just a pipe dream. Source COPA-DATA: © Adobe Stock / Archivist
and the Middle East has the scale, resources, and ambition to compete. But success isn’t assured. To lead the value chain, the region must support its goals with credible investment and prove it can meet global standards. This is a pivotal chance to shift from a fossil-fuel legacy to clean energy leadership. With transparency, investment, and technical credibility, the Middle East can shape the emerging hydrogen economy. The momentum exists — now it must deliver.
www.modernpowersystems.com | September 2025 | 37
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