| Carbon capture and storage CCS is at the turning point This is among the main conclusions of a new report from DNV*, summarised here


The turning point for CCS has arrived, with capture and storage capacity expected to quadruple by 2030


North America and Europe will drive this short- term scale up, with natural gas production still the main application. There will also be growth across many sectors and regions, including first- of- a-kind applications. Cumulative investments in CCS in the coming five years are expected to reach about USD 80 billion.


After 2030, the strongest growth will be in hard-to-decarbonise sectors, with manufacturing accounting for 41% of annual carbon dioxide captured by mid century


Manufacturing, particularly cement and chemicals, will be the biggest application of CCS in Europe; in North America and the Middle East it will be hydrogen and ammonia; in China, coal power.


Although capture from natural gas production will continue, its share falls from 34% in 2030 to 6% of total capture in 2050.


falls significantly short of what is required for any net-zero outcome Uptake will grow from 41 MtCO2 stored today to 1300 MtCO2


CCS will grow to capture 6% of global CO2


/y in 2050.


Despite positive policy and investment signals, CCS will need to scale to over six times the forecast level to reach DNV’s Pathway to Net Zero Emissions.


Scaling is particularly important in hard-to- decarbonise sectors.


CCS is growing where there is policy support. In most sectors, it will only scale with mandates


/y captured and emissions in 2050; that


and price incentives. Europe has the strongest price incentives and will catch up with — and eventually surpass — current North American deployment dominance.


Average costs will decline by around 40% towards 2050 as technologies mature and scale.


Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will capture 330 MtCO2


in 2050 — one-


quarter of total captured emissions


As global emissions continue to accumulate, CDR becomes important to reduce the large carbon budget overshoot.


Bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) is generally the cheaper CDR option.


Direct air capture (DAC) costs remain higher at around USD 350/tCO2


up to 2050, but voluntary


and compliance carbon markets still ensure the capture of 32 MtCO2


in 2040 and 84 MtCO2 2050.


Beyond the forecast period, an enormous amount of CDR, alongside nature-based solutions, will be required to ensure net-negative emissions.


DAC is a promising CDR technology due to its flexibility and ability to remove CO2


the atmosphere.


Two leading DAC technologies are readily scalable: solid-sorbent; and liquid-solvent. In solid-sorbent systems, solid adsorbents selectively capture CO2


directly


from the air. A challenge is the amount of energy required due to the low concentration of CO2


in in to form calcium carbonate. To release CO2 , high


temperatures (900°C) are required. Looking ahead, several emerging DAC technologies are in the early stages of development, such as electro-swing adsorption and membrane-based separation. These emerging approaches offer certain advantages that help solve some of the challenges posed by ‘traditional’ DAC technologies. For example, electro-swing adsorption directly uses electrons for sorbent regeneration, potentially yielding higher energy efficiencies.


However, many emerging DAC techniques have only been tested in laboratory settings and have lower technology readiness levels (TRL).


Reducing failure rates


Historically, CCS project failure rates have been high.


Additionally, operational projects have performed at less than their nameplate capacity, on average. In some cases this is by design, and in others this is due to technical and/or economic issues.


from the air, which is then


released using changes in temperature, pressure, or humidity. The sorbent is regenerated at 80–120°C with minimal degradation, enabling continuous reuse.


The liquid-solvent method uses strong hydroxide solutions (eg, potassium hydroxide) to absorb CO2


, which then reacts with calcium


CCS deployment is not growing in line with most IPCC assessed scenarios consistent with 1.5 to 2°C. Indeed, DNV forecasts that deployment by mid-century will be less than one-sixth of that required under its own Pathway to Net Zero scenario. Accelerated deployment is clearly needed, and reducing the number of project failures and improving the performance of operational facilities is fundamental. Lessons from prior failed and operational projects are well documented and critical to consider as new CCS projects, policy, and regulations emerge globally.


A recent analysis of carbon capture project announcements, realisations, and cancellations by Kazlou et al**, found that carbon capture projects suffered from high failure rates of


CCS capacity additions to 2030 (MtCO2/y). ©DNV 2025


CCS by sector in 2030 and 2050 (MtCO2/y). ©DNV 2025 *dnv.com Energy Transition Outlook: CCS to 2050


** T Kazlou, A Cherp, J Jewell, Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets, Nature Climate Change, 14, 1047–1055, 2024


www.modernpowersystems.com | September 2025 | 23


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