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damage hydropower plants. A recent study has found that climate change could also shift the tropical rain belt of the planet. Projections indicate a northward shift over Eastern Africa and a southward shift in the Eastern Pacific, which could amplify flooding in southern India and increase drought stress in South-Eastern Africa and Central America. The repercussions could be significant for small hydro, the report warns, including a direct impact on the generation capacity and the potential ability of plants to adapt to climate change in the future. In order to foster the development of small hydro
Above: Small hydropower installed capacity of < country (MW)
Oceania _10MW by
Oceania is described as being the report’s smallest region in terms of the number of countries and installed (454MW) and potential small hydro capacity (1106MW). According to WSHDR2022, Australia and New Zealand have the greatest potential but further development is unforeseen in the region. While the Pacific Island Countries and Territories are mostly flat islands with little or no potential.
Technical innovation In recent years technological innovations, such as
new low- and zero-head turbines, plus those in water pipelines, have increased the scope of small hydro development. However, even though the industry could benefit from digitalisation to help enhance efficiency, cybersecurity, and reliability, WSHDR2022 says it lags behind other electricity generating sectors due to its many ageing projects. Therefore, the report concludes, digitalisation remains an important consideration that requires further research and development to help improve SHP operation and future potential.
Climate change With global warming altering weather patterns, future
Below: Small hydropower potential capacity of up to 10MW by country (MW)
hydropower forecasts that do not consider this will be unrealistic if based on business-as-usual scenarios, WSHDR2022 warns. With climate projections predicting a continuous temperature increase that will lead to a rise in evaporation and evapotranspiration, this in turn may lead to lower runoff and could impact the efficiency and performance of small hydro plants. Although melt from retreating glaciers will result in increased streamflow in the short term, presenting an opportunity for SHP within the next few decades, it will also lead to increased flows and floods that could
plants, and taking into consideration their role in mitigation and adaptation, plus the impacts of climate change under different climate scenarios, the report provides various recommendations. For the national planning and regulatory bodies it says that they need to: Introduce policies to ensure consideration of climate change for the construction of new plants and the operation of existing ones. Foster the development of hydrological models for various climate scenarios relevant to local conditions and studies to reassess SHP potential. Develop holistic climate change adaptation plans including sectoral adaptation responses for watersheds. Set up regulatory frameworks that provide incentives for SHP development and reward projects adequately in the evolving energy markets. While small hydro developers, owners and operators should:
Undertake a climate risk assessment even if the project shows low risks to climate change impacts. Consider measures to increase the resilience of the project’s hydraulic infrastructure during refurbishment.
Consider additional regulating reservoirs, reservoir- based SHP plants and other storage technologies such as lithium-ion batteries to add flexibility and energy storage. Consider SHP sites in locations less vulnerable to extreme weather impacts, better insurance policies and the development of early warning systems. Enhance climate-related information disclosure including GHG emissions and climate risks to access climate finance.
Overcoming barriers Since the publication of the first report in 2013, the
combined installed capacity of global small hydro has increased by 12%, reaching 79.0GW. At the same time, known potential is estimated at 221.7GW. Therefore there is still room for development in many parts of the world. Despite recent progress, the report states that many of the barriers remain similar to those listed in its previous editions. These are common for all regions of the world and include: Lack of accurate and up-to-date data. This is a barrier for attracting private investment in developing countries but when available, in both developed and developing countries, data on small hydro potential are often overlooked as it is based on outdated studies that fail to account for current policy frameworks, technological improvements, and the potential arising from the rehabilitation of old sites or the development of existing waterways and dams.
14 | November 2023 |
www.waterpowermagazine.com
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