Monitoring systems |
Right: Tools like HydroForecast Seasonal-3 are bringing AI-powered foresight to hydropower operations around the world
engagement The practical benefits of HydroForecast are already
Operational impact and user References
https://www.upstream.tech/posts/ hydroforecast-outperforms-the- competition
https://www.upstream.tech/ posts/2021-07-21-upstream-tech- awarded-phase-2-sbir-grant-from- department-of-energy
being felt by users in the field. One utility, for example, used the tool to plan early reservoir drawdowns ahead of a heavy snowmelt season. By anticipating high inflows, they avoided spill events that could have compromised both safety and energy production. In another case, a conservation group used seasonal forecasts to time fish habitat restoration work, aligning efforts with predicted low-flow conditions. Moutenot notes that user feedback has been crucial
to the tool’s evolution. “We listen closely to what our partners need,” he says. “That’s how we’ve improved the forecast lead times, tailored the outputs to their operational systems, and added flexibility in how the data are delivered.” HydroForecast’s delivery methods are also designed with operators in mind. Data can be accessed via API, web interface, or direct integration into energy management platforms. This allows users to ingest the forecasts into their existing workflows without added friction.
“It’s not enough to have a good forecast,” Moutenot says. “It has to be actionable. It has to fit into the way people already make decisions.”
Climate adaptation and a role for
policy As climate change continues to reshape hydrology, tools like HydroForecast are likely to become increasingly indispensable. Changing snowpack patterns, altered storm tracks, and higher evapotranspiration are all shifting the timing and magnitude of flows. Traditional rule curves and planning assumptions may no longer hold. “We see HydroForecast as part of the climate adaptation toolkit,” Moutenot says. “Better foresight allows for more flexible, resilient management.” He also sees a potential role for policy and
HydroForecast Seasonal-3
HydroForecast Seasonal-3 is the latest generation of seasonal streamflow forecasting, built on a newly developed AI-based hydrology architecture. This model is designed to support long-term water resource planning, medium- and long-range risk assessment, and seasonal water management. Key features of Seasonal-3 include: Daily timestep forecasts with flexible horizons of up to one year. Integration of multiple ensemble weather forecasts, satellite observations, and snowpack datasets. Sub-basin level data ingestion to better reflect local hydrological variability. Enhanced performance in cold climates, aided by training on Canadian gauge data.
The new architecture brings together global observations and meteorological inputs to generate probabilistic forecasts that are both scalable and adaptable. Seasonal-3 has demonstrated strong performance across a range of hydrological conditions and regions.
regulation in supporting the adoption of advanced forecasting. Just as grid operators now rely on probabilistic load forecasts, water managers may eventually be required – or incentivised – to use probabilistic inflow forecasts to inform decision-making. “We’re not there yet, but I think we’ll get there,” he says. “The more we can quantify uncertainty and turn it into useful guidance, the more we can support proactive rather than reactive management.”
The flow ahead As water managers grapple with increasing
complexity, tools like HydroForecast Seasonal-3 offer a powerful new way to peer into the future. By combining global data, modern machine learning, and a commitment to transparency, Upstream Tech is helping bring water forecasting into the 21st century. “We’re incredibly motivated by the opportunity
to make a difference,” says Moutenot. “Whether it’s helping a hydropower operator optimize generation or supporting a community facing drought, we believe better forecasts can lead to better outcomes.” With Seasonal-3, that vision is becoming a reality. And as climate pressures grow, the ability to anticipate and adapt will be more valuable than ever.
26 | August 2025 |
www.waterpowermagazine.com
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