Dike 6 Dike 5 Project Location Dike 4 Main Dam
Dam height 165 ft (Main Dam 88 ft (Dike 2)
Spillway
Key Map
Camanche Reservoir Dike 3 Breach Location Dike 2
Impounded Volume 430,000 ac ft (Main Dam 321,500 ac ft (Dike 2)
Dike 1 0 1,500 3,000 6,000 Feet
conducted a robust probabilistic dam breach analysis that revealed critical insights not captured by the deterministic study.
A case study with real impact Camanche Reservoir is formed by several earthen
embankment structures including the main dam on the Mokelumne River and Dike 2 situated along the southern perimeter of the reservoir (Figure 2). The traditional breach model for Dike 2, based on its modest height compared to the main dam, predicted relatively moderate consequences. But the probabilistic model told a different story. Unlike the main dam, Dike 2 impounds a significant volume of water despite its shorter profile. The probabilistic approach captured a range of breach sizes that better reflected the site-specific risks. Notably, the analysis showed that the deterministic parameters initially selected likely underestimated the consequences of a breach. Informed by this data, the project team was able to update the deterministic inputs to reflect a more accurate and conservative breach scenario (Figure 3).
Why this matters Probabilistic modeling isn’t about replacing
deterministic methods – it’s about complementing them. When used together, these approaches give dam owners, emergency managers, and regulators a more comprehensive understanding of flood risk. With probabilistic analysis: Emergency planners can assign exceedance probabilities to inundation maps, improving clarity and confidence during response planning. Dam owners gain deeper insight into site-specific risks, leading to smarter investments in mitigation and infrastructure upgrades.
Regulators are equipped with better data to guide oversight, balancing safety with practical implementation.
A shift in the industry This case study underscores a broader shift in dam
safety: moving from rigid, prescriptive modeling toward flexible, risk-informed decision-making. Probabilistic dam breach analysis is a tool fit for the future – a future where uncertainty is sought to be understood, not overlooked. The field is evolving, and so must our methods. Incorporating probabilistic frameworks into standard dam safety practice isn’t just innovative – it’s responsible.
0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0
For more information
kleinschmidtgroup.com
www.ebmud.com
Above: Figure 2. Site Location Map of Camanche Reservoir
Below: Figure 3. Distribution of Peak Breach Discharges
Final 432,200 cfs
Initial 346,800 cfs
Discharge (cfs)
www.waterpowermagazine.com | August 2025 | 21
Relative frequency
220,000 240,000
260,000 280,000 300,000 320,000 340,000 360,000 380,000 400,000 420,000 440,000 460,000 480,000 500,000 520,000 540,000 560,000 580,000
600,000 620,000 640,000 660,000 680,000 700,000 720,000 740,000
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