Modelling | Model applications
Recent research has highlighted the important role modelling plays in water management and how it can assist with the large-scale adoption of freshwater infrastructure, as well as promote a greater understanding of sedimentation
HYDRO-ECONOMIC MODELLING (HEM) is a water management tool that can help researchers, water practitioners and policymakers address critical questions about the socioeconomic and biophysical perspectives of current and future water demand and supply. In the past it has been used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and adaptations, assess hydropower and reservoir operations, weather forecasting and the water-energy-food nexus. And although HEM has become a valuable tool for analysing water-human systems, forecasting water management scenarios, developing policy and optimising infrastructure operations, some of its limitations can produce unreliable predictions. With the management of water resources becoming
increasingly complex due to greater demand and competition across different economic sectors, researchers from the University of California, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the Union of Concerned Scientists, recently undertook a review of more than 150 scientific papers that addressed water-related topics. They say that the ‘overarching objectives’ of their review was to: Identify how existing HEMs have innovated in integrating sectoral models such as climate, hydrological, energy, agricultural, environmental and economy-wide models. Assess the scope of the impact and water policy issues that HEMs have addressed. As lead author José Pablo Ortiz Partida says, such models “shine a light on these challenges, helping us to navigate the intricate challenges of water management in an increasingly thirsty world”. The research he worked on with colleagues, called Hydro-Economic Modelling of Water Resources Management Challenges: Current Applications and Future Directions, was recently published in the journal Water Economics and Policy, and highlighted five distinct themes.
Below: Hydro-economic modelling is used to evaluate hydropower and reservoir operations
1.Water is better managed through
partnership and collaboration. Models showed more sustainable water resource management and better outcomes for stakeholders as levels of cooperation increased. This becomes even more important as the impacts of climate change become more apparent, but the authors warn there is still much work to be done to ensure that all relevant factors and stakeholders are integrated to make informed decisions. Furthermore, it was noted that basin-wide cooperation optimises benefits, and that comprehensive water management requires interdisciplinary teams.
2. Equity and sustainability in water
allocation As demand for water resources grows, so does the need for solutions that address resilience and
26 | February 2024 |
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reliability through equitable water (re)allocation. While rethinking water management at the water-food- energy-ecosystems level may prove to be one of the most significant areas to improve water sustainability.
3. Climate change adaptation and
uncertain management Water policies should consider the role of water in stakeholders’ activities while it is crucial that extreme scenarios are considered when developing adaptation strategies. Addressing and integrating uncertainty is a crucial feature of water management and in allowing stakeholders to understand the risks associated with different water management options and the costs of inaction. In addition, climate change is severely impacting agricultural systems, reducing the availability of water resources and crop yields, and increasing irrigation water requirements.
4. Groundwater needs to be
sustainably managed at all costs. Sustainable management of groundwater is imperative, given its crucial role in buffering municipal and agricultural systems and mitigating price spikes. The current costs associated with responsible groundwater usage, though significant, pale in comparison to the potential consequences of depleting this vital resource in the future. To address situations where overexploitation leads to private gains at the expense of public costs, economic sanctions have proven effective. Implementing measures such as raising irrigation water and energy prices can contribute to curbing excessive groundwater exploitation.
5. Water Policy and governance The cost of inaction will be ‘unbearable’, the authors
stress, adding that in the absence of adequate policies protecting water resources and natural ecosystems, water users will deplete reservoirs, aquifers, and river flows for short-term adaptation to climate change, disregarding the impacts on the environment and future human activities. Furthermore, although local control is important, there still needs to be some minimal central guidelines. The authors give the example of countries in the EU that have ‘a more cohesive approach to dealing with transboundary water policy’ than the US. While the EU uses transboundary models that account for climate change and other topics that are ‘controversial’ for certain politicians, some US states don’t even acknowledge climate change as a reality, hindering the country’s efforts to improve water use and plan sustainably. In conclusion Ortiz-Partida et al state that despite the multiple applications of hydro-economic models, which are undoubtedly useful, there are still many challenges that these water management tools need to overcome to be more effective.
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