| Asia
The Asian Development Bank projects that the Asia-Pacific region’s energy demand will double by 2030, and since key types of power generation in the region such as thermal and hydropower require water to generate electricity, demand for water will also rise. And since power choices can impact water and the lack of water can strand power assets, the report pointed out that water security should inform energy security and urged governments to plan economic development and power expansion with water resource availability in mind. “Uncertain future flows of the ten rivers and extreme weather mean we must curate mountain-to-ocean waternomic roadmaps and energy systems that are resilient to climate change. National energy and water security plans must thus dovetail. The need to do all this is ever more urgent as doing so will help us manage escalating and compounding water risks as well as meet rising demand for water,” said Tan. As it is, extreme weather in river systems can already trigger systemic shocks on a national scale. The report says that the devastating Indus floods last year are case in point – over 30 million people in Pakistan lost their homes and its GDP took an estimated 10% hit. But impacts could be a lot worse: CWR showed the Indus river basin houses around 276 million or 88% of Pakistan’s population as well as 75% of national installed power capacity. Moreover as 92% of national GDP is generated there – the Indus cannot be allowed to fail. As the Indus also has the highest risk exposure profiles to drought and flood risk, building resilience to extreme weather is key, said the report. Besides Pakistan, the report also illustrated national
energy dependence on singular to multiple rivers – for example, Bhutan and Nepal’s power generation face single key river risk with 100% of their generation assets located in the Brahmaputra and Ganges respectively. Meanwhile, a third of India’s national installed capacity straddled three rivers whereas around half of China’s national installed capacity is spread across seven rivers. Beyond power generation, the report also found that people and GDP are significantly exposed to river basin risks: for China, around 44% of its population and 30% of its GDP are clustered in nine rivers; for India, 54% of its population and 43% of its GDP are clustered in four rivers. There are also transboundary issues. While installed capacity ranged from 9GW on the Amu Darya to 373GW on the Yangtze, the report noted that some rivers only serve one country whereas others serve multiple countries. For example, power assets along the Mekong serve five countries whereas power assets on the Tarim, Yangtze and Yellow only serve China. “This means that the transboundary management of eight out of the ten rivers should not just be about water sharing but also energy policies and development as well” said Dr CT Low, CWR’s Geospatial Risk Lead and co-author of the report. The authors acknowledge that this is a mammoth task and much more work needs to be done. “The report is far from perfect, with clear data gaps, but given the risks, we felt compelled to make a start in unpacking Asia’s tight water-energy-climate nexus so that we can make informed energy decisions today for water tomorrow,” Low said, adding that what is clear is that the eight countries which fall into the overall high risk group must let basin risks guide energy policies.
Dwindling reservoir levels As Reuters reported recently, prolonged heatwaves
and lower rainfall in 2023 resulted in dwindling reservoir levels and the fastest decline Asian hydropower generation has experienced for decades, leading to an increased consumption of fossil-fuels. Led by China and India, Asia’s hydropower output fell 17.9% during the seven months to July 2023 while fossil fuel-fired power rose 4.5%. From January to August 2023, China’s
hydroelectricity generation declined at the sharpest rate since at least 1989, falling by 15.9%, while Indian hydro fell by 6.2% during the same period. This was India’s sharpest decline since 2016 with its share of power output plunging to 9.2%, the lowest in at least 19 years. Although Chinese renewables output grew by 22% and 18% in India during the same period, China increased electricity generation from fossil fuels by 6.1% to make up for the shortfall, with India boosting fossil fuel-fired power output by 12.4%. Hydropower output is also reported to have plunged in other Asian countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia, mainly due to drier weather but in some cases as a result of efforts to conserve water and alter supply patterns.
Human impacts on Mekong flow Climate-caused drought has also adversely affected
the Mekong River in recent years, from the historic low flows of 2019–21 to the rare “reverse flow” that has shrunk Cambodia’s vital Tonle Sap Lake, according to the initial findings of a landmark joint study released in October 2023. Water infrastructure development has also been named as a contributing factor, impacting the natural flow regime with increased dry season flow and reduced flood season flow. The joint study partners – the Mekong River Commission (MRC) and its upstream counterpart, the Lancang-Mekong Water Resources Cooperation Centre – presented the phase 1 findings on Southeast Asia’s most important waterway at the 13th Regional Stakeholders Forum of the Mekong River Commission. Dr Anoulak Kittikhoun, CEO of the MRC Secretariat, says this joint study symbolises a deepening
Above: Fisherman in action on Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia © Mangkorn Danggura /
Shutterstock.com
Below: Nurek hydropower dam spilling in Tajikistan
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