| MINT & BRICS
require dispatchable renewable capacity to support expanding transmission and regional power trade ambitions. Barriers remain, including regulatory complexity, financing risks, land acquisition issues, and grid constraints. The vertically integrated single-buyer model centred on state utility PLN also limits competition and investment flexibility. Indonesia thus represents a high-potential emerging market: significant resource endowment and policy momentum balanced against institutional and logistical challenges. The scale of planned investment suggests hydropower will remain central to the country’s energy transition strategy.
Nigeria
Nigeria’s hydropower landscape differs sharply from Mexico and Indonesia. The electricity system is dominated by gas-fired generation, reflecting vast natural gas reserves. Hydropower therefore functions less as a backbone and more as a diversification and electrification tool. In 2024, large hydropower accounted for about 15.4% of installed capacity, with small hydro contributing roughly 0.3%. Despite thermal dominance, these figures highlight hydro’s relevance as one of the few substantial renewables connected to the grid. Policy ambitions reinforce this role. Nigeria plans to
expand cumulative small hydro capacity to about 2GW by 2025 as part of broader renewable targets, closely tied to rural electrification and off-grid initiatives aimed at improving unreliable supply and expanding access. Hydropower’s strategic value stems from systemic weaknesses. Infrastructure constraints, fuel supply disruptions, and pipeline vandalism frequently undermine gas-fired reliability, while transmission bottlenecks and revenue shortfalls further strain the system. In this context, locally sourced hydro offers resilience and diversification. Demand pressures add urgency. Rapid population
growth, urbanisation, and industrial expansion are increasing consumption, while many businesses rely on costly diesel generators due to unreliable grid supply. Expanding hydro, particularly decentralised small projects, could reduce dependence on backup generation and improve cost efficiency. However, challenges remain significant. Financing constraints, institutional fragmentation, and investment hesitancy limit project development. Continued policy emphasis on gas may also slow renewable diversification. For stakeholders, Nigeria represents a longer-term development opportunity, particularly in mini-grid, rural, and hybrid systems aligned with electrification priorities.
T urkey
Turkey stands apart among the MINT economies in terms of hydropower penetration and maturity. Hydropower is a major pillar of the renewable capacity mix, reflecting geographic suitability and sustained development. In 2024, large conventional hydropower accounted for approximately 26.2% of installed capacity, with small hydro adding 1.5%. These shares place Turkey among the strongest hydro performers in emerging markets and underline its significance within the national portfolio. Turkey’s energy strategy emphasises diversification
and reduced dependence on imported fuels. Hydropower directly supports this objective by providing
Brazil
Brazil stands out globally as one of the most hydro- dependent power systems. Hydropower accounts for the majority of annual generation and forms the backbone of electricity supply. In 2024, large conventional hydro represented 41.7% of total installed capacity, with small hydro adding 2.8%, giving the technology a dominant position in the generation mix. This extensive base supports system stability and limits reliance on costly thermal generation. Hydropower’s dominance, however, is double- edged. Policymakers are increasingly concerned about overdependence, particularly during droughts that threaten reservoir levels and reliability. The severe 2014–2015 drought exposed this vulnerability, forcing greater use of expensive thermal power. As a result, Brazil is diversifying through rapid wind and solar expansion supported by competitive energy auctions. Hydropower is therefore shifting from primary supply source to complementary balancing resource, maintaining stability while integrating variable renewables. Electricity consumption is projected to continue rising with urbanisation, electrification, and data-centre growth, reinforcing the need for system resilience. In this context, hydro’s flexibility and storage capacity remain indispensable. For the global hydro sector, Brazil represents a mature
yet evolving market, with investment opportunities centred on refurbishment, reservoir optimisation, digital asset management, and hybrid integration rather than large-scale expansion alone..
Russia
Russia’s hydropower sector holds a structurally important but stable position within a generation mix dominated by natural gas. Large conventional hydro accounted for about 18.3% of installed capacity in 2025, with small hydro and pumped storage contributing smaller shares. Capacity is projected to remain broadly constant at roughly 50.6GW through 2035, reflecting a policy focus on modernisation rather than new megaprojects. Refurbishment of legacy assets and efficiency upgrades therefore form the core of investment. Hydropower performs several systemic functions within Russia’s centralised energy model, supporting baseload generation, seasonal balancing, and supply security alongside gas and nuclear. The state planning framework prioritises reliability, with capacity payments and long-term agreements underpinning revenue stability.
Between 2026 and 2030, hydropower is expected to
www.waterpowermagazine.com | February/March 2026 | 35
domestic, renewable capacity, particularly amid geopolitical uncertainties affecting fuel imports. Installed capacity is projected to grow through 2035 as demand rises alongside economic growth and electrification. Although policy focus increasingly targets solar and wind expansion, hydropower remains a stabilising complement to variable renewables. Plans to introduce pumped storage by the mid-2030s further highlight hydro’s role in grid flexibility and storage, enhancing the value of existing reservoirs. For the global hydro industry, Turkey represents a
mature but evolving market focused on modernisation, optimisation, and system-balancing investments rather than large-scale new dam construction.
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