MINT & BRICS | growth markets Powering
Using insights from outlook reports from GlobalData, IWP&DC examines hydropower’s shifting function across BRICS and MINT electricity systems
alongside upgrades to existing hydropower assets under the CFE programme. Rather than major new dam construction, the focus is on refurbishment, efficiency improvements, and integration into a more flexible system incorporating storage and distributed generation. This positioning reflects structural challenges, including transmission bottlenecks and dependence on imported US natural gas. Hydropower’s reliability and domestic resource base make it attractive as a hedge against supply volatility. It also complements planned storage deployment by providing dispatchable renewable generation to help manage peak demand and reserve margins. Demand fundamentals reinforce this outlook. Electricity consumption is projected to rise from roughly 320.5TWh in 2024 to over 421TWh by 2035, driven by industrial expansion and electrification. As consumption grows, hydro’s role as a stabilising renewable resource will remain essential. For industry stakeholders, opportunities lie less
Above: Aerial View of Jatigede Dam, The Second Largest Dam in Indonesia. Image: Akhmad Dody Firmansyah/
Shutterstock.com
FOR HYDROPOWER PROFESSIONALS ssessing global opportunity landscapes, emerging economies remain central to investment, engineering innovation, and operational expertise. The BRICS and MINT countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey – represent large and expanding electricity markets, but their hydropower sectors are evolving along very different trajectories. Across these markets, hydropower is shifting from a standalone generation technology toward a multi- dimensional platform delivering storage, flexibility, resilience, and renewable integration within increasingly complex power systems.
Mexico Mexico’s hydropower sector operates within a strongly state-led electricity system dominated by the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE). The government has reaffirmed the central role of state participation in generation and grid operation, while targeting an increase in clean electricity generation to 45% by 2030 and 50% by 2035..
Within this framework, hydropower plays both a
historical and strategic role. Large conventional hydro accounted for around 12% of installed capacity in 2024, while small hydro contributed about 0.4%. These figures place hydro among Mexico’s key renewable resources alongside solar and wind and underscore its value in maintaining grid stability as intermittent capacity expands. Policy direction indicates hydro is not being sidelined
despite rapid solar growth. Mexico’s roadmap envisions expanded renewable capacity and grid modernisation,
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in greenfield megaprojects and more in asset modernisation, digital optimisation, and hybridisation with storage technologies, where engineering expertise and advanced turbine solutions can deliver incremental but valuable gains.
Indonesia Indonesia presents perhaps the most dynamic hydropower growth narrative among the MINT economies. While coal still dominates the capacity mix, accounting for more than half in 2024, policy frameworks increasingly emphasise renewable expansion, with hydropower expected to attract a major share of investment. Between 2025 and 2030, hydropower is projected to receive about 28.3% of power-sector investment, second only to solar PV and ahead of geothermal and coal. This reflects abundant hydrological resources and a
strategic push to reduce fossil fuel dependence while expanding grids across the archipelago. Currently, large conventional hydropower accounts for about 5.7% of installed capacity, with small hydro adding roughly 1%. Though modest, these shares are expected to rise, with combined large hydro and pumped storage projected to reach around 9.1% by 2035. The technological trajectory is notable. Indonesia
is exploring pumped storage and floating solar-hydro hybrids to enhance flexibility and address intermittency. In a system defined by isolated island grids and limited interconnection, such solutions could be transformative. Demand dynamics reinforce this outlook. Electricity consumption is expected to increase from 306TWh in 2024 to over 516TWh by 2035 amid industrialisation and electrification. Meeting this growth sustainably will
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