SMRs & ADVANCED REACTORS | MARSHALL PLAN
SMR buildout needs a new Marshall Plan
SMRs remain the most economically viable, and often the only practical, option for replacing coal. If pursuing net-zero is a genuine goal, the world requires an initiative akin to the Marshall Plan to assist the most carbon-intensive regions in the transition
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS evidence has been mounting that a large expansion of nuclear energy capacity is indispensable for keeping global warning within 1.5°C limits. Multiple studies have confirmed that, contrary to the claims by “all-renewables” zealots, no single group of technologies can enable a timely and cost-efficient energy transition, and a diversified energy mix of low-carbon sources, including both intermittent renewables and nuclear, is needed to achieve net-zero by 2050. The most recent estimates suggest that the global nuclear energy installed capacity needs to increase 2.5-3 times from the current 370 GW to between 916 GWe and 1,160 GW by 2050. To offset the retirement of the aging existing fleet, new
global capacity additions over the next 25 years need to reach between 800-1,000 GWe, averaging about 30-40 GWe annually. This task is challenging, considering that the average new global capacity additions over the past decade stood at approximately 6.5 GWe per year, almost six times less than the target. While the majority of expected growth will likely come from conventional, GW-sized reactors connected to centralised grids in BRICS and other large emerging economies, between 10% and one-third of the additions are expected to come from small modular reactors (SMRs). In December 2023, the New Nuclear Watch Institute (NNWI), a London-based think tank, published a report: ‘Scaling Success: Navigating the Future of Small Modular
Reactors in Competitive Global Low Carbon Energy Markets’ which emphasises the pivotal role of SMRs in achieving global net-zero targets and underscores the urgency for accelerated deployment of SMRs across the globe. Despite growing interest and burgeoning number of
start-ups and initiatives, the actual sector’s progress in the past decades has been slower than expected. Russia’s Akademik Lomonosov, the world’s first operational SMR- based facility launched in 2019 and stationed in Chukotka, remains the lone commercially-operational project to date. The recent cancellation of NuScale’s pilot project in Utah in November 2023 further highlights the challenges SMR vendors face. According to the NNWI analysis, the very attributes making SMRs appealing – their compact size, modular construction, and flexibility – are also associated with their potential strategic vulnerabilities. While SMRs offer the promise of quicker, more economical builds and suitability for diverse grid configurations, these advantages come with higher relative costs per unit of output capacity. At the same time, market demand uncertainties, along with supply chain challenges, regulatory and political risks, complicate the scaling of modular production, a key factor in driving down costs. SMR projects are entering a very competitive market.
Internally, the competition arises among different SMR designs, while externally, especially in the on-grid
Above: Akademik Lomonosov, the world’s first operational SMR-based facility launched in 2019 and stationed in Chukotka Photo credit: Grigorii Pisotsckii/
Shutterstock.com 26 | January 2024 |
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