INDUSTRY EXPERT
MaaS, eBikes, eScooters and car clubs, the hitherto wonderkids of mobility, appear to have been found out and will in my view continue to drop off of their erstwhile enthusiasts’ slides and out of their speeches that tell us how we will all travel in the future.
Autonomous cars (AC) have been reduced to the odd infrequent press release trying to create interest prior to the latest fundraising attempt…
..no business case for 5G = no at scale ACs. It’s not the technology that’s stopping ACs, it’s money. Talking of money, it seems as though the recent years of defying gravity with lots of meaningless chitter chatter from many bright young things (and some old things who should know a great deal better), together with cool new ways to ‘reorganise cities’ and the rest of the hot air, has finally lost altitude not to mention credibility.
Buses, trams, taxis, private hire, trains and metros are back in vogue……in truth they were never out in the real world of transport. The flash in the pan silver bullets that appeared to provide a new mobility utopia have quickly lost their appeal as misuse, littering and the lack of the actual problem that many sought to solve were found to be a fallacy. That’s to ignore the fact that appetite for risk amongst high wealth individuals has reduced significantly now that low risk interest rates are climbing back up and consequently the availability of venture capital is now shrinking fast.
The 2030 now 2035 deadline for ceasing petrol and diesel car sales will I believe move back further, as the chronically inadequate charging infrastructure creaks still further while a few hundred thousand more EVs are sold between now and then. The whole wishful thinking approach to EVs has come apart at the seams and, unless someone can get hold of it and the money needed, is likely to grind to a halt. Ask yourself, would you buy one? The government hype of EV sales up by 70% blah, blah was always statistically meaningless and only ever intended to persuade people that everyone else was buying one so you should. The facts are that with a total fleet of 33m cars in the UK, less than a million are EVs and that’s after how many years?
What about VAT? The government will review it. If reviews are ever privatised, I’m buying shares – the
PHTM JANUARY 2024
answer to every problem is a review. Money appears no object, they take forever and who can remember an outcome?
ARE WE ALL DOOMED?
As an eternal optimist I can say that I don’t think so, but even I think it’s going to be a close call. Prices rising faster than wages, interest not quite at peak, tax at an all-time high and costs rising faster than sales is not a good landscape for success, is it? So, what do we do as an industry? How do we break this spiral and get back to profitable growth? How do drivers once again view this as a great industry that they want to stay in and feel they have a great job?
I’m afraid in an industry where there is no tangible growth and where over recent years the business model has changed to compete with new entrants, the industry has moved from providing services that were based on some level of differentiation to a service based on being largely commodity based and consequently competition has been reduced to being all about price. Therefore, as things stand, the only route to higher sales is displacement of customers from your competitors to you. In a commodity- based industry the only tool in your bag to achieve displacement is price; that means cutting prices which in an economic downturn is likely to have two effects, one short term: you will see more demand and the other a reduction in supply as drivers decide they can’t work for lower fares even if there are marginally more of them. And the longer-term effect could be less drivers in the industry. Short term you are stuck with loads of work and no coverage – good luck with that!
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