REFLECTIONS OF AN
Article by Dr Michael S. Galvin
mobilityserviceslimited.com
UP GOES THE BAR AGAIN
As 2023 closes I guess any reprise of the industry during the last year would feature the points below:
• Lower levels of business than expected.
• More regulation/guidance than you could shake a stick at.
• Less hot air about passing fads in mobility.
• More obfuscation about agent/principal and VAT.
I guess what has dropped off the list to an extent is worker status (improved fares have largely seen off that threat); driver shortages (higher fares have solved that one too); electric vehicles (no one is buying them so there are less problems to raise) and cross-border hiring.
Some new issues have started to bubble up: special licences for Special Educational Needs (SEN) and chauffeurs. All in all, a confusing year of little progress and for many much anxiety.
Our elders used to start sentences with sayings such as: “In the good old days” or: “Before the war….” I now know how they feel. Our industry used to be a simple one – get the drivers, get the customers, make money, enjoy.
It’s now consultation after
consultation, I dotting and T crossing, check this, check that etc. etc. whilst the big issues continue to languish.
Given the state of politics in Britain, a new cab act seems destined to be sitting on the drawing board for a long time yet. Whilst 2023 may have been good in some ways for many at a personal level, it has certainly been a great deal less remarkable at an industry level.
So, what do we have to look forward to in 2024? 6 MORE OF THE SAME?
Let’s start with business levels, a lame duck government, an uninspiring opposition, a likely hung parliament and the whole year dominated by crisis after crisis leading to will they/won’t they call an election and if so when. That is not the stuff that provides consumers or businesses with the confid- ence to invest, to spend or to expand. Strikes, wars and international upheaval are not the mood music needed to inspire more business travel, stimulate innovation, takeovers, mergers or generate the fuel needed to give the country the confidence that consumers or businesses can spend money, afford to enjoy themselves and take a few more cabs.
There could be the odd exception, but I strongly suspect a flat 2024 will probably turn out to be the best outcome we can expect whilst the likelihood I suggest is a continuation of the gentle decline experienced since mid-2022. This will be shielded slightly by inflation continuing to bubble along pushing up fares and prices and providing an illusion of some growth or more likely a lower rate of decline.
The asphyxiation of the industry through constantly raising the regulatory bar, whether it achieves anything or not, seems likely to continue. We still have the implementation of the Good Practice Guidance and the New Statutory Guidance to cope with as the 285 licensing authorities across the UK do their idiosyncratic best to generate 285 different versions of the same guidance within their local regulations - well the ones who can be bothered to do anything to address the new guidance that is.
JANUARY 2024 PHTM
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