SPECIAL FEATURE r ONLY A CENSUS HAS THE ANSWERS
Espey says that while it’s a very laborious and costly operation, it’s vital: “Only a census can provide the fine-grained and accurate data needed by analysts and policymakers to make informed, evidence-based development policies. You can’t just use satellite imagery and estimate a population, or use Facebook data and estimate a population based on internet activity. You still need something to check it against. So you have to have a census which is the basic bedrock of a statistical system.” The 2010 Population Census
Round, conducted between 2005 and 2014, was one of the great successes of national and international statistical efforts. According to the UNFPA, only 21 countries did not conduct a census. An estimated 6.4 billion people (93 percent of the world’s population) were enumerated. The 2020 census round has already begun. The UNFPA aims to make sure no country fails to carry out a census because of financial or technical constraints; and, working with the UNSD, provides technical support during all stages of a national census, and helps ensure the data is widely used for development. “The 2010 round provided good
coverage, but 7 percent is still a huge amount of people uncounted,” Espey says. Many of these people live in countries where conducting a census is more difficult than normal, due to conflict. And a huge number of refugees still remain unaccounted for. The other challenge with census data is the time lag. “A lot of the data we’re depending on might be
from a census that is 15 years old,” Espey says. “This is why we have to supplement the information with new methods.” She explains that that a TReNDS supported initiative, called POPGRID, is working to address this, curating and validating data from satellite imagery, telecom companies and more to help us with interim estimates. But almost none of the SDG indicators have very timely data, except those tracked using satellite imagery – for example, forest coverage can now be tracked faster than ever before. “But everything else has time lags of at least two to three years,” Espey says. “In a world that is moving so fast, this is inadequate.” Back in 2015, TReNDS put together a simple study4
(Espey
calls it a ‘back of the envelope job’, but it’s probable that TReNDS’ envelopes and calculations are larger and more sophisticated than most) in partnership with others to estimate the size of the financing gap to improve data and information systems for the SDG indicators. Those involved looked at the underlying data tools needed (census data, administrative data, surveys and more) and considered the related cost in different countries. “We did the maths and estimated there was a US$500 million dollar gap, globally,” she says. “Relatively speaking, this is not very big.” More recent estimates by other actors suggest bigger gaps (up to double TReNDS’ 2015 assessment when training and capacity building are added in), but Espey points out that none of these estimates factor in the improved efficiency that
4 • See
www.un.org/development/desa/publications/ the-sustainable-development-goals-report-2018.html
•
http://unsdsn.org/resources/publications/a-needs-assessment- for-sdg-monitoring-and-statistical-capacity-development/
13
countries would enjoy if censuses are improved, for example. In any case, Espey explains, it’s not just a case of finding the funding. “Money does exist and the current finance gap debate focuses on establishing a more coordinated central mechanism to allocate resources – some type of fund or maybe a more effective coordination tool where finance flows can be tracked – rather than simply mobilizing resources. We need to prioritize investments into different systems and we’re hoping that will bring with it huge efficiency gains,” she says. The Statistical Commission agreed on the establishment of an innovative funding mechanism with a goal to mobilize both domestic and international funds, to respond in an efficient manner to national priorities to strengthen data and statistical systems.
DATA DETERMINATION Issues overlap and each country has its own focus.
At times it seems an insurmountable challenge, but still the Statistical Committee plows on…
“I think the whole mission of the SDGs is pushing us in a very positive direction – we wouldn’t otherwise be collaborating so much and with such purpose.”
Jessica Espey
“I remember when they were putting together the SDG targets. I had wished I could adjust the wording a little bit here and there so that it would be easier to monitor from a statistician's perspective.” Francesca Perucci
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