SUGAR EXPORT FLOW When we look at the Sugar Export flow during Jan/ Mar 2023 i.e., Q1 2023, the total volume was similar to last year. Indian export flow dropped by 631k m/t and from April 2023 it will be far less than last year. Countries like Brazil and Thailand picked market share and are expected to increase further as we go along.
The world is expected to need about 5 mln m/t of Refined/White Sugars during Q2 and Q3 and last year India exported 1.7 mln m/t and 900k m/t respectively. The world is expected to need about 9.8 mln m/t of Raw Sugar during Q2 and 9,5 to 11.3 mln m/t during Q3 and last year India exported 2.3 mln m/t and 600k m/t respectively.
So, one may see that without Indian exports, when it comes to Raws, refineries will need to seek 3.5 mln m/t during Q2/Q3 (including extra tolling) from somewhere else. Brazil is the main candidate, but that’s about 583k m/t more per month from April to September 2023 and likely beyond.
When it comes to Ref ined/White Sugars, importers will need to seek at least 2 mln m/t from somewhere else, assuming Indian refineries increase their Raw Sugar imports for tolling. Countries like Thailand and tolling refineries are the main candidates, but that’s about 333k m/t per month and likely beyond September.
The US debt ceiling has been agreed by the higher authorities and now we need to see the Congress approving. Interest rates are already quite high and any further rises may be small and less frequent.
CRUDE MAY BE AT THE LOWS, BUT TIME WILL TELL Specs are running very low net longs when it comes to Agri Commodities and many crops that have been planted now need to grow and be harvested.
The coming sugar trade flow is largely dependent on the Indian monsoon and sugar production from November 2023 onwards, so let’s see how the rainfall will be during June to September 2023.
So, one may say the macro although not great may have seen the worst already and commodities like Sugar will have less to deal with elsewhere and the focus on its own S&D or more importantly trade flow will play a more important part on price discovery.
Alberto Peixoto AP Commodities E:
albertopeixoto@apcommodities.london T: +44(0) 7570 714 981 W:
apcommodities.london
WHEN WE LOOK AT THE SUGAR EXPORT FLOW DURING JAN/MAR 2023 I.E., Q1 2023, THE TOTAL VOLUME WAS SIMILAR TO LAST YEAR.
21 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q2 Edition 2023
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