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Q2


EDITOR'S NOTE Q2 EDITION


THE GHOST


Commodity Supercycle’ and Bitcoin as a store of wealth. The Sugar market has been


2023


Resources, Nationalism, Investment, Women and Employment, Sugar, Copper, Aluminium, Commodities, Weather, Risk Appetite, Banter, Incivility, China, AI, Big Data, Ethics and Accessibility.


Welcome to the Q2 edition of the Ghost In The Machine, as the war in Ukraine becomes ever more entrenched and ever more brutal, and much of the world economy appears to be at best limping along, with little in the way of clarity on the outlook emerging.


This edition takes a close look at the key role of the mining, oil and gas sectors in the energy transition, and the risks posed by upstream investment, governance, fiscal regimes and the threat of resource nationalism. We revisit prior themes about China’s role and challenges in global commodity markets, ‘the


on fire for much of the year to date, in contrast to a good many other commodities, so what is the supply and demand outlook, and how does this fit in with the broader reduction in risk appetite for commodities? Labour markets have tightened sharply in Europe and North America since the pandemic, largely due to a sharp reduction in labour force participation rates, but closer inspection of the US Household Employment survey highlights that counter to pre-pandemic trends, the proportion of women in the labour force has dropped, so why has this happened, and what are the issues that need to be tackled in policy terms. Workplace ‘banter’ can


be a very useful contributor to breaking down barriers in the workplace, and indeed ‘letting off steam’, but recent surveys by CISI and others reveal that it can sometimes be cruel, and move down through incivility and towards bullying, with negative implications for productivity. AI (artificial intelligence) is


a hot topic for both investors and society, and with regulators racing to establish operating and ethical guidelines, it is time to reconsider the broader risks and challenges.


© 2023 COPYRIGHT ADM INVESTOR SERVICES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED - ALL RIGHTS RESERVED


ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG. A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company. The information within this publication has been compiled for general purposes only. Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, ADM Investor Services International Limited (ADMISI) assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions and will not update it. The views in this publication reflect solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of ADMISI or its affiliated institutions. This publication and information herein should not be considered investment advice nor an offer to sell or an invitation to invest in any products mentioned by ADMISI. © 2023 ADM Investor Services International Limited.


2 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q2 Edition 2023 IN THE MACHINE


EDITORS IN CHIEF Eddie Tofpik


E: eddie.tofpik@admisi.com Marc Ostwald


E: marc.ostwald@admisi.com


PRODUCTION & CIRCULATION CREATIVE DESIGN Alfred Michelin


MARKETING Alfred Michelin


Simrat Kaur Sounthe


ADM CONTRIBUTORS Eddie Tofpik


Howard Jenkins Marc Ostwald Rohan Ziegelaar


EXTERNAL CONTRIBUTORS Alberto Peixoto Dr Carole Nakhle Lou Brien


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