EDITOR'S NOTE Q2 EDITION
stuck on board ships in the Persian Gulf for many months, once again raising concerns about safety. We take an in-depth look at the history of safety improvements and the now emergent risks related to geopolitical instability and the adoption of alternative fuels in the context of the energy transition.
2026
Central Banks, Inflation, Growth, Shipping, Safety, Security, Disruption, Liquidity, Grains, Fertilizers, NatGas, Baltic, Foreign Exchange, AI, Digital Transformation, Sugar, El Niño, Biofuels, Mandates
Welcome to the Q2 2026 edition of the Ghost In The Machine, as uncertainty about
the long-term consequences of the conflicts in the Middle East contends with optimism about an AI-related investment boom.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in many seafarers being
The vulnerability of fertilizer feedstocks to disruptions to gas output and vital by-products such as ammonia, nitrogen and sulphur has again been exposed, as it was after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, serving as a timely reminder about interconnectivity in the resources sector.
Those disruptions to energy supplies and accompanying price pressures are also going to be a test for central bank credibility, particularly in judging the extent of second round price effects and the need to tighten policy.
Sugar prices have traded in a relatively narrow range, but the outlook is subject to a complex mix of weather effects in India and elsewhere, the outlook for ethanol demand for both sugar and corn, above all in EM countries which are heavily dependent on energy imports.
There is also a look at the impact of the gyrations of EUR/USD on Baltic grain farmers, even if they are only exporting to the Eurozone, given competition from Black Sea farmers pricing in USD.
Investment in AI and Digital technology is rapidly transforming commodity and energy trading, but despite heavy investment, there are a number of pitfalls that need to be considered.
Finally, we consider financial market liquidity in the context of the pros and cons of innovations over the past few decades.
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2 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q2 Edition 2026 THE GHOST IN THE MACHINE
EDITORS IN CHIEF Eddie Tofpik
E:
eddie.tofpik@
admisi.com Marc Ostwald
E:
marc.ostwald@admisi.com
PRODUCTION & CIRCULATION CREATIVE DESIGN Alfred Michelin
Simrat Kaur Sounthe
MARKETING Alfred Michelin
Simrat Kaur Sounthe
ADM CONTRIBUTORS Eddie Tofpik JP Steiner
Marc Ostwald EXTERNAL CONTRIBUTORS
Alberto Peixoto Donatas Jankauskas Ian Murrin
Marc Pauchet
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