be wrong…but I just think this is how these sort of situations play out, so please be prepared.


At the same time, new operations outside the Gulf utilising other feedstocks and energy sources are sprouting up, whether it be a farmer using spark technology, powered by solar panels on his farm to produce nitrogen from the air or as in the case of New Zealand, where a USD 1.77 billion project will be set up to produce urea from brown coal (lignite), enough to provide all the urea New Zealand needs locally (6)


.


POSSIBILITY OF PRICES CHASING POTENTIALLY LIMITED SUPPLIES OF FERTILISER


935 & 1.0mm MT at USD 959 per MT) than what they paid only 2 months prior (USD 508 & USD 512 per MT). Some offers in the tender were even in the USD 1,000 area with some as high as USD 1,136 per MT (3)


. This is the


background to the situation…but there are other things to consider.


COMPARISON MADE


In a comparison made by the Agricultural Risk Policy Center of the North Dakota State University in late March (3)


on the effects of both the start


and early peak of the Russo-Ukrainian when compared to the pre-closure to post-closure of the Strait, they found the following details.


Back in 2022, Wheat (HRW) rose 73.8%, Corn 34.4%, Soybeans 26.5% & Soybean Oil 49.8%. In mid-March this year, the same rose 5.9%, 3.6%, -0.1% & 7.5% respectively. Fertiliser prices in 2022 rose for Urea 40.8%, DAP 39.5%, MAP 33.7% & Potash 19.4% whilst in mid-March this year they rose 28.2%, 2.6%, 1.5% & 0.8%. From this we can see agricultural prices have increased…but not as fast as some fertiliser prices, especially the rise in Urea, though some other fertilisers, especially Potash, have been somewhat shielded from this.


This is not a uniform example, as it just deals with U.S.A. destinations… but it does give an idea of some of the issues. Now, for most of the Northern Hemisphere, this will now be a ‘wait- and-see’ situation as the use of fertilisers is now effectively over and most will now be watching for the 2027 season. However, Brazil is now entering their winter season and will soon be looking at fertiliser prices with some, possibly great, concern. The immediate decision window for Brazil is finishing for Soybeans and will soon be starting for corn…between July – November 2026 (5). Additionally, Brazil imports between 90 – 99% of its fertilisers, mainly from Russia & China (5)


. Thus, it may not necessarily


be the ‘spot’ price that is the key for all purchases…but the purchasing window.


SIGNIFICANT POINT


This leads to another point…and a significant one! The damage done to LPG facilities and also to fertiliser plants in the whole Gulf during the Iran War. It is somewhat unclear how bad the damage during the conflict (until now) has been & the nations have been reticent in fully disclosing details. I suspect the damage may be a lot more than some optimistic reports & the turnaround to full production may take a lot longer than many envisage. I could


This brings me back to my original concerns prompted by CTW & IGF. Natural Gas is the key! The availability of this…or lack of suitable availability, has an immediate & lasting effect on fertiliser prices right at the Southern Hemisphere growing season. There will likely be knock on effects in possibly lower yields & potentially still higher prices. However, many in the Northern Hemisphere, as I said earlier, will likely wait it out to see if prices can return to lower levels within their ‘window’, maybe as late as the turn of 2026 into 2027. This is a risky strategy, with the possibility of prices chasing potentially limited supplies of fertiliser, all at the same time…but then…what choice do many of the users have. As Rabobank’s semi-annual fertiliser outlook stated ‘Overall, the fertilizer market faces a prolonged period of tight supply, weak affordability, and heightened price risk. Even if geopolitical tensions ease, normalization will be slow. The outlook for 2026 points to continued pressure on farm economics and increased downside risks for global crop production and food price stability’ (7)


an understatement.


Eddie Tofpik E: eddie.tofpik@admisi.com T: +44(0) 20 7716 8201


1. AgTechNavigator – 14 April 2026 2. Farm Policy News – 13 April 2026 3. Reuters News – 22 April 2026 4. Farmdoc Daily – 23 March 2026 5. Farmdoc Daily – 10 April 2026 6. World Fertilizer – 30 April 2026 7. RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness – April 2026


10 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q2 Edition 2026


. I suspect this may well be


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