While not exclusive to the dry bulk sector, these reforms had a transformative impact on bulk carrier safety. Fatalities linked to structural failures and operational shortcomings declined significantly.
The 2010s proved financially challenging for shipping, with sustained pressure on earnings across most sectors. Such conditions can strain safety culture. Nevertheless, the decade also saw important technological advances that further secured seafarers.
The widespread adoption of electronic chart display systems, satellite-based AIS positioning, integrated bridge systems, enhanced weather routing tools, and improved maritime distress and safety communications contributed to a reduction in groundings and collisions, while improving emergency response capabilities.
By the second half of the 2010s, major commercial vessel categories were registering fewer than five fatalities per 1,000 shipyears — a historic low.
LIQUID ANOMALY
Despite this overall improvement, a notable statistical anomaly emerged during the 2010–2019 period. Cargo liquefaction accounted for nearly 90% of dry bulk-related fatalities during that decade, compared with approximately 1% in the preceding thirty years.
Liquefaction is a phenomenon in which certain dry bulk cargoes suddenly behave like a liquid when their moisture
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 Chart 2: Fatalities per ship year. Source: Bureau Veritas 14 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q2 Edition 2026 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24
Nevertheless, the risk has not disappeared. Nickel ore from any origin can present liquefaction hazards if moisture content and cargo handling procedures are not rigorously controlled. As recently as January this year, a Supramax vessel foundered in the South China Sea, likely taking six crew members with her, in an incident suspected to involve liquefaction of nickel ore from the Philippines.
FATALITIES PER 1,000 SHIPYEAR
Tanker Containers
The Hawk S Image courtesy of Armador Gemi Isletmeciligi and Bureau Veritas
content exceeds safe limits and vessel motion reduces their shear strength. This can lead to rapid cargo shift, severe stability loss, and ultimately foundering.
Nickel ore cargoes, particularly from Indonesia, appear to have been central to this surge. Nickel ore is inherently prone to liquefaction when not properly tested, handled, or protected from excess moisture.
Two factors seem to have driven the trend: a surge in global demand for nickel ore and the availability of large Indonesian deposits. While stainless steel production remains the primary source of demand,
Gas Bulker
battery manufacturing — especially for electric vehicles — significantly increased imports to China from the late 2000s onward.
Indonesia, home to some of the world’s largest nickel reserves and located in close proximity to China, became a major supplier. The correlation between increased Indonesian shipments and liquefaction-related fatalities is striking. High humidity levels and, in some cases, suboptimal storage and loading conditions may have increased moisture risks.
In 2014, Indonesia introduced a ban on nickel ore exports to encourage domestic processing and higher value-added production. The ban was temporarily lifted between 2017 and 2019 before being reinstated. The timeline of exports closely mirrors the surge and subsequent decline in liquefaction-related fatalities.
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